Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-06 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-06
0 activated plays
Gap rows 228
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-09-05

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Alec Burleson

Strong

STL vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 42.8
Odds / Gap +625 / +8.49%
1+ HR 22.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.144x

Value Rank #2

Yandy Díaz

Play

TB vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore

Value Score 37.1
Odds / Gap +550 / +6.97%
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.162x

Value Rank #3

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola

Value Score 28.0
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.28%
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.026x

Value Rank #4

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs MIL | Kyle Harrison

Value Score 22.5
Odds / Gap +540 / +4.62%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.001x

Value Rank #5

Jose Altuve

Lean

HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez

Value Score 22.0
Odds / Gap +515 / +3.99%
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.079x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+8.49%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+8.49%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+8.49%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.98%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.98%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.27%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.80%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +735 / U -1080
+7.12%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1145
+7.05%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +730 / U --
+7.05%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +740 / U -1085
+7.02%
11.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +735 / U -1155
+6.94%
11.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +735 / U --
+6.94%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.97%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+6.85%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+6.85%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.70%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.70%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+5.36%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.92%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.28%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.28%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.19%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.95%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.95%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.95%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+5.64%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+5.51%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+5.51%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.98%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.98%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.98%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+4.98%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+4.90%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.90%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.89%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.80%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.80%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+4.87%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+4.75%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+4.75%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.78%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+4.67%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.67%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.62%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+4.49%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.49%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.57%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.57%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.57%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+4.56%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+4.45%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+4.39%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+4.47%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+4.37%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+4.37%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+4.29%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+4.29%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+4.29%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.6
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.25%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.25%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.91%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.47%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+4.04%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.04%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+4.04%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+3.99%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+3.86%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+3.86%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+3.92%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+3.92%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+3.92%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+3.88%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+3.76%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+3.76%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs TOR | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+3.84%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+3.69%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+3.64%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+3.69%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+3.69%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+3.59%
14.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+3.50%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+3.50%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+3.42%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+3.30%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+2.17%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-6.56%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.04%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+3.04%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+2.03%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-6.39%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+2.84%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+2.72%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+2.72%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+2.72%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+2.61%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+2.61%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs TOR | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.69%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.69%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.69%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+2.68%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -650
+2.40%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+2.40%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.57%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.57%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.57%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.43%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.55%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-5.78%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+2.41%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.26%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.26%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.14%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.14%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.14%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.11%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.98%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.85%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.04%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.90%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.90%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs TOR | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.97%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.81%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.81%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs TOR | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.97%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.66%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.66%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+1.81%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
+0.80%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-5.10%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+1.79%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+1.61%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
+1.43%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+1.74%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+1.63%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+1.63%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+1.71%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.55%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+1.50%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.3
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.67%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.51%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+1.35%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+1.42%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.26%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+1.21%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.9
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.88%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.38%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.38%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.85%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-0.09%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-4.21%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+0.69%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.37%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.37%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+0.68%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+0.60%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+0.60%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+0.66%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-0.28%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-3.99%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.65%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.46%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.27%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+0.51%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
-0.56%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-3.82%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.49%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.12%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.12%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.47%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.01%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.23%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+0.46%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+0.34%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+0.34%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+0.34%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.60%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.73%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+0.21%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+0.09%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+0.09%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+0.20%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+0.09%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+0.09%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs TOR | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.10%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.06%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.22%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+0.05%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
-0.11%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
-0.19%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.7
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
-0.41%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
-0.58%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
-0.62%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.6
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.50%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.50%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.50%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
-0.67%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
-0.80%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.80%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.91%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.12%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.33%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.93%
16.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.66%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-2.42%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-0.94%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-1.07%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-1.07%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.95%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-2.00%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-2.29%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.98%
15.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-1.73%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-2.44%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
-1.00%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-1.17%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-1.34%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-1.16%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-1.30%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-1.45%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -530
-1.22%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -495
-1.62%
19.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.62%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-1.34%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-1.49%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-1.65%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-1.37%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.51%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-1.65%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.41%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.71%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.77%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 462
Latest Date 2026-09-06
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%