Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-07 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-07
0 activated plays
Gap rows 174
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Older: 2026-09-06

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Carlos Santana

Play

AZ vs KC | Noah Cameron

Value Score 28.1
Odds / Gap +595 / +6.16%
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.111x

Value Rank #2

Trea Turner

Play

PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes

Value Score 27.3
Odds / Gap +580 / +5.88%
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.077x

Value Rank #3

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta

Value Score 26.7
Odds / Gap +590 / +5.90%
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Pitcher-Friendly | HR 0.968x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+6.93%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+6.81%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+6.81%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+6.90%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+6.77%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+6.77%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+6.70%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+6.58%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+6.58%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+6.23%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1090
+6.16%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+6.16%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.18%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.18%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+4.84%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.40%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+6.16%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -815
+6.06%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+6.06%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.90%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.79%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.79%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.88%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.78%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.78%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.83%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.75%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.75%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+5.76%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+5.76%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.67%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.35%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.35%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.26%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.31%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.16%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.16%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+5.29%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.22%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.22%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+5.21%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+5.21%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.12%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +990 / U -1665
+5.11%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +975 / U --
+4.98%
9.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +965 / U -1760
+4.89%
9.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.97%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.88%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.88%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.54%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.42%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.42%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.88%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.77%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.72%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.3
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.79%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.66%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.66%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.08%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.08%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.74%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.30%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+2.71%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.55%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+2.46%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.65%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.56%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.56%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+2.64%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+2.36%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.36%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+2.45%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+2.45%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.45%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+2.35%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.20%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+2.04%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+2.31%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.03%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.03%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+2.13%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.94%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.75%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+2.05%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.73%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.73%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.92%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.79%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.79%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+1.90%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.71%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+1.52%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.87%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.57%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.57%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.86%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.71%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.71%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.84%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.71%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.71%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs SD | Nick Pivetta | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.81%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.81%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.81%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.79%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.64%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.48%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+1.60%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.43%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+1.26%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.41%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.11%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.11%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+1.35%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
+0.34%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-4.64%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.18%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.18%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.18%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+0.95%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+0.95%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+0.95%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+0.95%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+0.83%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+0.83%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+0.89%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+0.78%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+0.78%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.80%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.63%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.45%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+0.77%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -415
-0.43%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-3.96%
23.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.43%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.25%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+0.07%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+0.37%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+0.20%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+0.16%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1060 / U -1850
+0.37%
8.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1035 / U --
+0.18%
8.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1025 / U -1950
+0.10%
8.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 103.5
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.33%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.33%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.33%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.8
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -485
+0.26%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +365 / U -450
-0.20%
20.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-0.20%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+0.11%
21.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-0.83%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-3.44%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
+0.11%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-0.28%
19.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-0.28%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.08%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.23%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.23%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
-0.12%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.37%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-2.93%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.53%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-0.74%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.95%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.90%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.90%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.90%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.4
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.06%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.27%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.49%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -575
-1.35%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-1.53%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.71%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.40%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.61%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.68%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 463
Latest Date 2026-09-07
Latest Signals 3
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%