Mithrandir Metrics
Palantir lane 2026-07-17 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
62
Matched
216
Lineups
180
HR BOARD 2026-07-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Palantir gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
 17.3%Palantir 10.0%market +7.3pp
P 17.3
F 14.7
V 11.9
5.4pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
02
Iván Herrera STL
Lineup pending
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2
 18.6%Palantir 12.5%market +6.1pp
P 18.6
F 14.7
V 13.3
5.3pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
03
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
 21.7%Palantir 16.4%market +5.3pp
P 21.7
F 18.0
V 15.2
6.5pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
04
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4
 19.4%Palantir 14.8%market +4.6pp
P 19.4
F 14.7
V 16.3
4.7pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
05
Jeremy Peña HOU
IN
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1
 15.5%Palantir 11.2%market +4.4pp
P 15.5
F 14.7
V 13.4
2.1pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 765 avg 3 books
06
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 7
 16.2%Palantir 11.9%market +4.2pp
P 16.2
F 14.7
V 11.1
5.0pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 705 avg 3 books
07
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1
 14.7%Palantir 10.5%market +4.2pp
P 14.7
F 12.0
V 13.7
2.7pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
08
Dansby Swanson CHC
IN
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6
 16.9%Palantir 13.1%market +3.9pp
P 16.9
F 14.7
V 13.4
3.5pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
09
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
 16.3%Palantir 12.5%market +3.8pp
P 16.3
F 14.5
V 13.9
2.4pp 1.126xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
10
Wyatt Langford TEX
IN
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1
 18.5%Palantir 14.9%market +3.6pp
P 18.5
F 14.7
V 12.5
6.0pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
11
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 13.4%Palantir 9.8%market +3.6pp
P 13.4
F 13.5
V 13.0
0.5pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 885 avg 3 books
12
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4
 18.0%Palantir 14.8%market +3.2pp
P 18.0
F 14.7
V 14.1
3.9pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 550 avg 3 books
13
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 15.6%Palantir 12.5%market +3.1pp
P 15.6
F 13.3
V 14.2
2.3pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
14
Michael Busch CHC
IN
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3
 20.9%Palantir 17.8%market +3.1pp
P 20.9
F 18.0
V 16.8
4.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 440 avg 3 books
15
Alec Burleson STL
Lineup pending
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3
 16.3%Palantir 13.3%market +3.0pp
P 16.3
F 14.7
V 13.6
2.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
16
Jose Altuve HOU
IN
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 3
 18.0%Palantir 15.0%market +3.0pp
P 18.0
F 14.5
V 16.7
3.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 540 avg 3 books
17
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7
 12.6%Palantir 9.6%market +3.0pp
P 12.6
F 13.2
V 9.1
4.1pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
18
Ryan O'Hearn PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3
 15.8%Palantir 13.0%market +2.8pp
P 15.8
F 14.7
V 13.2
2.6pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
19
Edouard Julien COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6
 13.0%Palantir 10.9%market +2.2pp
P 13.0
F 13.5
V 12.1
1.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 790 avg 3 books
20
Lawrence Butler ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4
 17.0%Palantir 14.9%market +2.1pp
P 17.0
F 14.7
V 14.6
2.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
21
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5
 14.0%Palantir 12.0%market +2.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.5
V 14.1
0.6pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
22
Bryan Reynolds PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5
 15.3%Palantir 13.5%market +1.8pp
P 15.3
F 13.5
V 14.1
1.8pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
23
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5
 16.1%Palantir 14.6%market +1.5pp
P 16.1
F 14.5
V 16.6
2.2pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
24
Ozzie Albies ATL
IN
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
 14.8%Palantir 13.5%market +1.4pp
P 14.8
F 13.5
V 15.3
1.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
25
Brandon Nimmo TEX
IN
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3
 15.9%Palantir 14.9%market +1.0pp
P 15.9
F 14.5
V 13.0
2.9pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 545 avg 3 books
26
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3
 16.5%Palantir 15.5%market +1.0pp
P 16.5
F 13.2
V 14.9
3.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 520 avg 3 books
27
Josh Jung TEX
IN
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 7
 12.3%Palantir 13.1%market -0.7pp
P 12.3
F 13.5
V 9.1
4.4pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
28
Lane Thomas KC
IN
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 10.5%Palantir 13.0%market -2.5pp
P 10.5
F 12.7
V 17.0
6.5pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
29
Tyler Soderstrom ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5
 19.1%Palantir 14.0%market +5.0pp
P 19.1
F 14.7
V 14.2
4.9pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 585 avg 3 books
30
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
 15.7%Palantir 13.1%market +2.6pp
P 15.7
F 14.5
V 14.1
1.6pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 635 avg 3 books
31
Vinnie Pasquantino KC
IN
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 19.3%Palantir 16.7%market +2.5pp
P 19.3
F 18.0
V 18.5
1.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
32
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1
 9.0%Palantir 7.7%market +1.3pp
P 9.0
F 12.7
V 13.8
4.8pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
33
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1
 17.2%Palantir 16.4%market +0.8pp
P 17.2
F 14.7
V 13.9
3.3pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 485 avg 3 books
34
Jung Hoo Lee SF
Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7
 7.7%Palantir 8.0%market -0.3pp
P 7.7
F 12.0
V 9.7
4.3pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
35
Jake Mangum PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1
 7.7%Palantir 8.0%market -0.3pp
P 7.7
F 12.0
V 11.3
4.3pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
36
Randy Arozarena SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5
 13.9%Palantir 14.5%market -0.6pp
P 13.9
F 13.5
V 14.5
1.0pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 590 avg 3 books
37
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 17.3%Palantir 18.0%market -0.7pp
P 17.3
F 14.7
V 14.0
3.4pp 1.117xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
38
Bobby Witt Jr. KC
IN
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 17.0%Palantir 17.7%market -0.7pp
P 17.0
F 14.0
V 18.4
4.5pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
39
Jacob Wilson ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6
 8.4%Palantir 9.2%market -0.8pp
P 8.4
F 10.3
V 10.0
1.9pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 985 avg 3 books
40
Luis Arraez SF
Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
 6.9%Palantir 8.0%market -1.1pp
P 6.9
F 12.3
V 12.8
5.9pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 1150 avg 3 books
41
Brendan Donovan SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6
 8.8%Palantir 10.3%market -1.4pp
P 8.8
F 13.2
V 9.6
4.4pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 875 avg 3 books
42
Christian Walker HOU
IN
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4
 16.3%Palantir 18.2%market -1.8pp
P 16.3
F 14.0
V 16.3
2.4pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 450 avg 3 books
43
Salvador Perez KC
IN
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 4
 16.1%Palantir 18.0%market -1.9pp
P 16.1
F 14.0
V 18.2
4.2pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
44
Isaac Paredes HOU
IN Triple
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5
 13.8%Palantir 16.0%market -2.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.9
V 15.3
1.6pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
45
Matt Wallner MIN
Lineup pending
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2
 17.7%Palantir 20.0%market -2.3pp
P 17.7
F 14.7
V 15.1
3.0pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 400 avg 3 books
46
Willy Adames SF
Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
 15.3%Palantir 17.7%market -2.4pp
P 15.3
F 13.5
V 15.5
2.0pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 465 avg 3 books
47
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2
 16.3%Palantir 18.9%market -2.6pp
P 16.3
F 14.5
V 15.1
1.8pp 1.051xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
48
Brandon Lowe PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4
 17.7%Palantir 20.4%market -2.7pp
P 17.7
F 14.5
V 13.8
3.9pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
49
Drake Baldwin ATL
IN
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
 13.2%Palantir 16.0%market -2.8pp
P 13.2
F 14.5
V 14.5
1.3pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 525 avg 3 books
50
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5
 12.8%Palantir 15.8%market -2.9pp
P 12.8
F 13.5
V 14.9
2.1pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
51
Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
Lineup pending
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
 16.3%Palantir 19.4%market -3.1pp
P 16.3
F 14.0
V 16.1
2.4pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
52
Josh Naylor SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4
 13.8%Palantir 17.0%market -3.2pp
P 13.8
F 13.5
V 14.8
1.3pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
53
Byron Buxton MIN
Lineup pending Triple
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3
 17.3%Palantir 21.1%market -3.7pp
P 17.3
F 14.7
V 15.1
2.6pp 1.107xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
54
Matt Olson ATL
IN
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2
 17.6%Palantir 21.7%market -4.1pp
P 17.6
F 14.5
V 15.8
3.1pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
55
Austin Riley ATL
IN
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
 12.8%Palantir 17.0%market -4.1pp
P 12.8
F 13.5
V 15.2
2.4pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
56
Rafael Devers SF
Lineup pending
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
 15.9%Palantir 20.8%market -4.9pp
P 15.9
F 13.5
V 15.9
2.4pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
57
Yordan Alvarez HOU
IN
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 2
 15.8%Palantir 20.8%market -5.0pp
P 15.8
F 14.5
V 17.0
2.5pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
58
Shea Langeliers ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3
 15.2%Palantir 20.8%market -5.6pp
P 15.2
F 13.5
V 15.2
1.7pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
59
Marcell Ozuna PIT
Lineup pending
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2
 14.5%Palantir 21.1%market -6.6pp
P 14.5
F 13.5
V 14.4
1.0pp 1.069xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
60
Jake Burger TEX
IN
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4
 11.5%Palantir 20.4%market -8.9pp
P 11.5
F 13.3
V 13.1
1.8pp 1.033xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 390 avg 3 books
61
Nick Kurtz ATH
Lineup pending
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1
 16.2%Palantir 27.0%market -10.8pp
P 16.2
F 13.2
V 15.3
3.0pp 1.043xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books
62
Cal Raleigh SEA
Lineup pending
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
 14.6%Palantir 26.3%market -11.7pp
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 16.0
3.4pp 0.908xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 280 avg 3 books

Data context

772 sample flags
Status1762roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.