Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-07-17 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-09-01
Palantir
17901 props
Brier 0.117
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17901 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12243 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 10.0%market | +4.7pp |
P
17.3
F
14.7
V
11.9
|
5.4pp | 1.126xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 865 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1 |
13.5%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +3.7pp |
P
13.4
F
13.5
V
13.0
|
0.5pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 885 avg 3 books |
| 03 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 7 |
13.2%Fangorn | 9.6%market | +3.6pp |
P
12.6
F
13.2
V
9.1
|
4.1pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 905 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Jeremy Peña
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 11.2%market | +3.5pp |
P
15.5
F
14.7
V
13.4
|
2.1pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 765 avg 3 books |
| 05 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 7 |
14.7%Fangorn | 11.9%market | +2.8pp |
P
16.2
F
14.7
V
11.1
|
5.0pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 705 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Edouard Julien
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 6 |
13.5%Fangorn | 10.9%market | +2.6pp |
P
13.0
F
13.5
V
12.1
|
1.4pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 790 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Iván Herrera
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +2.2pp |
P
18.6
F
14.7
V
13.3
|
5.3pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 08 | IN | MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +2.0pp |
P
16.3
F
14.5
V
13.9
|
2.4pp | 1.126xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Ryan O'Hearn
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 13.0%market | +1.7pp |
P
15.8
F
14.7
V
13.2
|
2.6pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 640 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Dansby Swanson
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 6 |
14.7%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +1.6pp |
P
16.9
F
14.7
V
13.4
|
3.5pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2 |
18.0%Fangorn | 16.4%market | +1.5pp |
P
21.7
F
18.0
V
15.2
|
6.5pp | 1.126xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 485 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 1 |
12.0%Fangorn | 10.5%market | +1.5pp |
P
14.7
F
12.0
V
13.7
|
2.7pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 12.0%market | +1.5pp |
P
14.0
F
13.5
V
14.1
|
0.6pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 700 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Alec Burleson
STL
Lineup pending
|
STL vs AZMerrill Kelly · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 13.3%market | +1.5pp |
P
16.3
F
14.7
V
13.6
|
2.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 625 avg 3 books |
| 15 |
Josh Jung
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 7 |
13.5%Fangorn | 12.6%market | +0.9pp |
P
12.3
F
13.5
V
9.1
|
4.4pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 665 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 12.5%market | +0.8pp |
P
15.6
F
13.3
V
14.2
|
2.3pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 17 |
Lane Thomas
KC
IN
|
KC vs SDMichael King · slot 5 |
12.7%Fangorn | 13.0%market | -0.3pp |
P
10.5
F
12.7
V
17.0
|
6.5pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 18 |
Ozzie Albies
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 14.1%market | -0.6pp |
P
14.8
F
13.5
V
15.3
|
1.8pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 14.1%market | -0.6pp |
P
15.3
F
13.5
V
14.1
|
1.8pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 610 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Michael Busch
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 3 |
18.0%Fangorn | 18.7%market | -0.7pp |
P
20.9
F
18.0
V
16.8
|
4.1pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 435 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Ian Happ
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 4 |
14.7%Fangorn | 15.5%market | -0.8pp |
P
19.4
F
14.7
V
16.3
|
4.7pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 545 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 4 |
14.7%Fangorn | 15.5%market | -0.8pp |
P
18.0
F
14.7
V
14.1
|
3.9pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 545 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 5 |
14.5%Fangorn | 15.3%market | -0.8pp |
P
16.1
F
14.5
V
16.6
|
2.2pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 555 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Wyatt Langford
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 15.6%market | -0.9pp |
P
18.5
F
14.7
V
12.5
|
6.0pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 540 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 4 |
14.7%Fangorn | 15.6%market | -0.9pp |
P
17.0
F
14.7
V
14.6
|
2.4pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 540 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Jose Altuve
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 15.8%market | -1.3pp |
P
18.0
F
14.5
V
16.7
|
3.6pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 27 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 3 |
13.2%Fangorn | 16.3%market | -3.0pp |
P
16.5
F
13.2
V
14.9
|
3.3pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 515 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MINBailey Ober · slot 1 |
12.7%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +5.0pp |
P
9.0
F
12.7
V
13.8
|
4.8pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 29 |
Luis Arraez
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1 |
12.3%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +4.7pp |
P
6.9
F
12.3
V
12.8
|
5.9pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 7 |
12.0%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +4.3pp |
P
7.7
F
12.0
V
9.7
|
4.3pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Jake Mangum
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 1 |
12.0%Fangorn | 7.7%market | +4.3pp |
P
7.7
F
12.0
V
11.3
|
4.3pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Brendan Donovan
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 6 |
13.2%Fangorn | 9.8%market | +3.5pp |
P
8.8
F
13.2
V
9.6
|
4.4pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 890 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Jacob Wilson
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 6 |
10.3%Fangorn | 8.7%market | +1.5pp |
P
8.4
F
10.3
V
10.0
|
1.9pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1005 avg 3 books |
| 34 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5 |
14.5%Fangorn | 13.1%market | +1.4pp |
P
15.7
F
14.5
V
14.1
|
1.6pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 635 avg 3 books |
| 35 | IN | KC vs SDMichael King · slot 3 |
18.0%Fangorn | 16.7%market | +1.2pp |
P
19.3
F
18.0
V
18.5
|
1.3pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 475 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 5 |
14.7%Fangorn | 14.0%market | +0.7pp |
P
19.1
F
14.7
V
14.2
|
4.9pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 585 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Randy Arozarena
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 14.5%market | -1.0pp |
P
13.9
F
13.5
V
14.5
|
1.0pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 590 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Brandon Nimmo
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 15.6%market | -1.1pp |
P
15.9
F
14.5
V
13.0
|
2.9pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 540 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Drake Baldwin
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3 |
14.5%Fangorn | 16.0%market | -1.5pp |
P
13.2
F
14.5
V
14.5
|
1.3pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Isaac Paredes
HOU
IN
Triple
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 5 |
13.9%Fangorn | 16.0%market | -2.1pp |
P
13.8
F
13.9
V
15.3
|
1.6pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 525 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 5 |
13.5%Fangorn | 15.8%market | -2.3pp |
P
12.8
F
13.5
V
14.9
|
2.1pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 535 avg 3 books |
| 42 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 1 |
14.7%Fangorn | 17.2%market | -2.5pp |
P
17.2
F
14.7
V
13.9
|
3.3pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 480 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 18.0%market | -3.3pp |
P
17.3
F
14.7
V
14.0
|
3.4pp | 1.117xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Austin Riley
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4 |
13.5%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -3.5pp |
P
12.8
F
13.5
V
15.2
|
2.4pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 45 |
Josh Naylor
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 4 |
13.5%Fangorn | 17.0%market | -3.5pp |
P
13.8
F
13.5
V
14.8
|
1.3pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 490 avg 3 books |
| 46 | IN | KC vs SDMichael King · slot 1 |
14.0%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -3.7pp |
P
17.0
F
14.0
V
18.4
|
4.5pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 47 | IN | KC vs SDMichael King · slot 4 |
14.0%Fangorn | 18.0%market | -4.0pp |
P
16.1
F
14.0
V
18.2
|
4.2pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 455 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Christian Walker
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 4 |
14.0%Fangorn | 18.2%market | -4.2pp |
P
16.3
F
14.0
V
16.3
|
2.4pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 450 avg 3 books |
| 49 |
Willy Adames
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4 |
13.5%Fangorn | 17.7%market | -4.2pp |
P
15.3
F
13.5
V
15.5
|
2.0pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 465 avg 3 books |
| 50 | IN | SD vs KCSeth Lugo · slot 2 |
14.5%Fangorn | 18.9%market | -4.4pp |
P
16.3
F
14.5
V
15.1
|
1.8pp | 1.051xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 430 avg 3 books |
| 51 |
Matt Wallner
MIN
Lineup pending
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 2 |
14.7%Fangorn | 20.0%market | -5.3pp |
P
17.7
F
14.7
V
15.1
|
3.0pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 400 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL
Lineup pending
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1 |
14.0%Fangorn | 19.4%market | -5.4pp |
P
16.3
F
14.0
V
16.1
|
2.4pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 415 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Brandon Lowe
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 4 |
14.5%Fangorn | 20.4%market | -5.9pp |
P
17.7
F
14.5
V
13.8
|
3.9pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Byron Buxton
MIN
Lineup pending
Triple
|
MIN vs CHCColin Rea · slot 3 |
14.7%Fangorn | 21.1%market | -6.3pp |
P
17.3
F
14.7
V
15.1
|
2.6pp | 1.107xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 55 |
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
IN
|
HOU vs BALDean Kremer · slot 2 |
14.5%Fangorn | 20.8%market | -6.4pp |
P
15.8
F
14.5
V
17.0
|
2.5pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 56 |
Jake Burger
TEX
IN
|
TEX vs ATLChris Sale · slot 4 |
13.3%Fangorn | 20.4%market | -7.1pp |
P
11.5
F
13.3
V
13.1
|
1.8pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 390 avg 3 books |
| 57 |
Matt Olson
ATL
IN
|
ATL vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 2 |
14.5%Fangorn | 21.7%market | -7.3pp |
P
17.6
F
14.5
V
15.8
|
3.1pp | 1.033xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 360 avg 3 books |
| 58 |
Shea Langeliers
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 3 |
13.5%Fangorn | 20.8%market | -7.3pp |
P
15.2
F
13.5
V
15.2
|
1.7pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 59 | Lineup pending | SF vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2 |
13.5%Fangorn | 20.8%market | -7.3pp |
P
15.9
F
13.5
V
15.9
|
2.4pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 380 avg 3 books |
| 60 |
Marcell Ozuna
PIT
Lineup pending
|
PIT vs CLEGavin Williams · slot 2 |
13.5%Fangorn | 21.1%market | -7.6pp |
P
14.5
F
13.5
V
14.4
|
1.0pp | 1.069xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 375 avg 3 books |
| 61 |
Cal Raleigh
SEA
Lineup pending
|
SEA vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3 |
12.6%Fangorn | 26.3%market | -13.7pp |
P
14.6
F
12.6
V
16.0
|
3.4pp | 0.908xHR pf | Pitcher-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 280 avg 3 books |
| 62 |
Nick Kurtz
ATH
Lineup pending
|
ATH vs WSHCade Cavalli · slot 1 |
13.2%Fangorn | 27.0%market | -13.8pp |
P
16.2
F
13.2
V
15.3
|
3.0pp | 1.043xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 270 avg 3 books |
Data context
772 sample flagsStatus1762roster/transaction rows
Lineups180confirmed starters
Triple2cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.