Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-08 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-07-08
0 activated plays
Gap rows 192
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-07-09 Older: 2026-07-07

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-07-28 2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-21

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea

Value Score 39.1
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.34%
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.035x

Value Rank #2

Jarren Duran

Strong

BOS vs CWS | Davis Martin

Value Score 37.4
Odds / Gap +715 / +8.11%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.071x

Value Rank #3

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea

Value Score 35.1
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.50%
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.035x

Value Rank #4

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti

Value Score 34.0
Odds / Gap +590 / +6.97%
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.036x

Value Rank #5

Ian Happ

Play

CHC vs BAL | Dean Kremer

Value Score 25.8
Odds / Gap +550 / +5.33%
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.035x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.34%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.34%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.27%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+8.11%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+8.11%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+8.11%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+6.97%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+6.86%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+6.86%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+6.91%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.84%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.84%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+6.55%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+6.43%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+6.43%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+6.33%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+6.33%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.24%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+5.61%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+5.61%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+5.53%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.61%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.61%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.51%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+5.46%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.35%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+5.30%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.1
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.43%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.34%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.34%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.35%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.29%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.22%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+5.33%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+5.21%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+5.21%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.89%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.89%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.89%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+4.83%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+4.72%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+4.66%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.1
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.50%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.17%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.17%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+4.31%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+4.22%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+4.22%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+4.28%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+4.28%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.28%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.15%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.03%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.03%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+4.00%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+4.00%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.92%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.60%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+3.60%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+3.48%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+3.48%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.52%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.37%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.37%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.17%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+3.06%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+3.06%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.13%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.05%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.05%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+2.93%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+2.83%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+2.83%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.89%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.89%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.89%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jahmai Jones headshot

Jahmai Jones
DET vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.85%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -830
+2.74%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+2.74%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.81%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.73%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.73%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+2.81%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+2.69%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+2.69%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs HOU | Spencer Arrighetti | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.80%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.50%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.50%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+2.78%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+2.64%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+2.59%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.75%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.44%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.44%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.30%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.14%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.14%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.15%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.04%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.04%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.10%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.01%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.01%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+2.01%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+1.89%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+1.89%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.5
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.92%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.76%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+1.60%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+1.85%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+1.71%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+1.66%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.80%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.50%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.50%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.74%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.61%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.61%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.96%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.79%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+0.61%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.73%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.57%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.40%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.66%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+0.53%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.53%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.65%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+0.65%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+0.51%
16.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+0.37%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+0.62%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.45%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.28%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs BAL | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.56%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.34%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.16%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.84%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.3
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+0.07%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.06%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.06%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.01%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.30%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.30%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.00%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.00%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.00%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.12%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.15%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.23%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.23%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.12%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.12%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
-0.42%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
-0.56%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.56%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.49%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.49%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.49%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-0.49%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.35%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.95%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.57%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.57%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.57%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.4
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.73%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-0.92%
19.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.12%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.76%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.07%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.07%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.00%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.31%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.31%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs CHC | Colin Rea | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.17%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.69%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.21%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.23%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.85%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.06%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.27%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.48%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.69%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.39%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.82%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-1.97%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs CLE | Slade Cecconi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.45%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.68%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.88%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.56%
20.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.57%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.78%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 422
Latest Date 2026-07-28
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-07-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 210 matched
36 unmatched
 8 / 42 / 63
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-07-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 34 / 57 / 24
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-26
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 42 / 82 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 54.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-25
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 315 matched
0 unmatched
 19 / 67 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 44.4
 --
Signals --
2026-07-24
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 5 / 61 / 72
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 36.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-23
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 87 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 25 / 26
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Nick Castellanos | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-07-22
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
24 unmatched
 15 / 61 / 60
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 45.0
 --
Signals --
2026-07-21
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 231 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 50 / 42
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Andrew Benintendi | 43.0
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%