Mithrandir Metrics
Fangorn lane 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
54
Matched
213
Lineups
216
HR BOARD 2026-08-31 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Palantir production Fangorn production Valinor rebadged research
Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Fangorn gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01
José Tena WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6
 12.4%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.7pp
P 10.1
F 12.4
V 8.8
3.6pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
02
Nico Hoerner CHC
IN
CHC vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1
 11.7%Fangorn 7.7%market +4.0pp
P 8.9
F 11.7
V 11.4
2.8pp 1.115xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
03
Jung Hoo Lee SF
IN
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 7
 11.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 8.6
F 11.3
V 7.2
4.1pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
04
Geraldo Perdomo AZ
IN
AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3
 12.6%Fangorn 9.3%market +3.2pp
P 13.3
F 12.6
V 8.8
4.5pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 935 avg 3 books
05
Zach McKinstry DET
IN
DET vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 8.7%market +3.2pp
P 9.8
F 11.9
V 10.1
2.1pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
06
Brice Turang MIL
IN
MIL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 10.0%market +2.5pp
P 13.5
F 12.6
V 9.8
3.8pp 1.115xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 865 avg 3 books
07
Jake Cronenworth SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 7
 11.7%Fangorn 9.6%market +2.1pp
P 11.3
F 11.7
V 10.1
1.7pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 905 avg 3 books
08
Keibert Ruiz WSH
IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 9.8%market +2.0pp
P 10.2
F 11.9
V 10.0
1.9pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 880 avg 3 books
09
Willi Castro COL
IN
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 1
 11.9%Fangorn 9.9%market +2.0pp
P 11.2
F 11.9
V 10.9
1.0pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 875 avg 3 books
10
Brandon Marsh PHI
IN
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6
 12.4%Fangorn 11.0%market +1.4pp
P 11.0
F 12.4
V 9.4
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 780 avg 3 books
11
Jordan Beck COL
IN
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 7
 11.3%Fangorn 10.0%market +1.3pp
P 13.7
F 11.3
V 8.6
5.1pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 870 avg 3 books
12
Colt Keith DET
IN
DET vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6
 11.7%Fangorn 10.5%market +1.2pp
P 10.8
F 11.7
V 8.5
3.3pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 820 avg 3 books
13
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 10.7%market +1.2pp
P 10.5
F 11.9
V 9.9
2.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 805 avg 3 books
14
Jarren Duran BOS
IN
BOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1
 12.4%Fangorn 11.8%market +0.6pp
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 10.9
3.7pp 1.113xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 715 avg 3 books
15
Daylen Lile WSH
IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 11.1%market +0.6pp
P 15.0
F 11.7
V 10.6
4.4pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 770 avg 3 books
16
Roman Anthony BOS
IN
BOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 12.0%market +0.5pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 12.0
2.0pp 1.113xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
17
Trevor Larnach MIN
IN
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 7
 12.1%Fangorn 12.5%market -0.4pp
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 8.9
3.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 700 avg 3 books
18
Adley Rutschman BAL
Lineup pending
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.4%market -0.6pp
P 12.2
F 11.9
V 12.3
0.4pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform BetMGM 705 avg 3 books
19
Luis García Jr. WSH
IN
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4
 12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 13.1
F 12.4
V 12.1
1.1pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
20
William Contreras MIL
IN
MIL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 13.0%market -0.6pp
P 12.8
F 12.4
V 12.0
0.8pp 1.115xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
21
Tyler Stephenson CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 12.8%market -1.0pp
P 10.7
F 11.9
V 12.6
1.9pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 680 avg 3 books
22
Heliot Ramos SF
Lineup pending
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 13.7%market -1.1pp
P 14.0
F 12.6
V 11.8
2.2pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 630 avg 3 books
23
Tj Friedl CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 13.3%market -1.2pp
P 13.5
F 12.1
V 11.9
1.6pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
24
Brenton Doyle COL
Lineup pending
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 5
 11.9%Fangorn 13.2%market -1.4pp
P 12.7
F 11.9
V 11.8
0.9pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 655 avg 3 books
25
Ezequiel Tovar COL
IN
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 13.5%market -1.6pp
P 13.4
F 11.9
V 12.6
1.5pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
26
Cj Abrams WSH
Lineup pending
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 14.6%market -2.0pp
P 15.5
F 12.6
V 12.8
3.0pp 1.027xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 585 avg 3 books
27
Jj Bleday CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 6
 11.1%Fangorn 13.4%market -2.3pp
P 11.5
F 11.1
V 10.6
0.9pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 645 avg 3 books
28
Carlos Santana AZ
Lineup pending
AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 14.2%market -2.5pp
P 11.2
F 11.7
V 10.9
0.8pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 605 avg 3 books
29
Trea Turner PHI
IN
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 14.8%market -2.7pp
P 13.2
F 12.1
V 13.1
1.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 575 avg 3 books
30
Ian Happ CHC
Lineup pending
CHC vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.5%market -2.9pp
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 13.8
2.2pp 1.115xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
31
Lawrence Butler ATH
IN
ATH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 15.6%market -3.1pp
P 15.0
F 12.6
V 13.7
2.4pp 1.137xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 540 avg 3 books
32
Nick Castellanos SD
Lineup pending
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4
 11.9%Fangorn 14.9%market -3.1pp
P 12.9
F 11.9
V 13.8
2.0pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 570 avg 3 books
33
Christian Yelich MIL
IN
MIL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 2
 14.1%Fangorn 17.2%market -3.1pp
P 16.1
F 14.1
V 13.2
2.9pp 1.115xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
34
Elly De La Cruz CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 15.8%market -3.2pp
P 15.2
F 12.6
V 13.0
2.6pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
35
Alex Bregman CHC
IN
CHC vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5
 12.6%Fangorn 15.9%market -3.3pp
P 13.4
F 12.6
V 14.8
2.3pp 1.115xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 530 avg 3 books
36
Josh Bell MIN
IN
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4
 12.1%Fangorn 15.5%market -3.4pp
P 12.7
F 12.1
V 11.9
0.7pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 545 avg 3 books
37
Jackson Merrill SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3
 11.7%Fangorn 16.3%market -4.6pp
P 13.8
F 11.7
V 14.3
2.6pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
38
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 17.2%market -4.7pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 14.1
1.8pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 480 avg 3 books
39
Taylor Ward BAL
IN
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 18.0%market -5.5pp
P 15.3
F 12.6
V 13.6
2.7pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 455 avg 3 books
40
Corbin Carroll AZ
IN
AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1
 12.6%Fangorn 18.4%market -5.8pp
P 15.4
F 12.6
V 12.3
3.0pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
41
Gunnar Henderson BAL
IN
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1
 12.1%Fangorn 18.4%market -6.2pp
P 14.4
F 12.1
V 14.1
2.3pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 445 avg 3 books
42
Luis Arraez SF
IN
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1
 11.3%Fangorn 7.7%market +3.6pp
P 7.8
F 11.3
V 8.9
3.6pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
43
Luke Keaschall MIN
IN
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1
 9.3%Fangorn 11.0%market -1.7pp
P 9.3
F 9.3
V 12.0
2.8pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 810 avg 3 books
44
Wilyer Abreu BOS
IN
BOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4
 12.6%Fangorn 16.3%market -3.7pp
P 14.3
F 12.6
V 13.0
1.8pp 1.113xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 515 avg 3 books
45
Royce Lewis MIN
IN
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 5
 11.7%Fangorn 15.8%market -4.0pp
P 9.6
F 11.7
V 12.1
2.6pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform BetMGM 535 avg 3 books
46
Spencer Torkelson DET
IN
DET vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5
 12.4%Fangorn 17.0%market -4.5pp
P 13.5
F 12.4
V 13.6
1.2pp 0.995xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 490 avg 3 books
47
Manny Machado SD
IN
SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 18.9%market -6.4pp
P 13.6
F 12.4
V 14.5
2.0pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 430 avg 3 books
48
Hunter Goodman COL
IN
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 19.4%market -6.9pp
P 15.1
F 12.6
V 13.1
2.6pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 415 avg 3 books
49
Bryce Harper PHI
IN
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2
 12.4%Fangorn 19.6%market -7.2pp
P 14.5
F 12.4
V 14.0
2.1pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 410 avg 3 books
50
Ketel Marte AZ
IN
AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2
 12.6%Fangorn 21.1%market -8.5pp
P 14.2
F 12.6
V 12.7
1.7pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 375 avg 3 books
51
Rafael Devers SF
IN
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 20.8%market -8.7pp
P 14.3
F 12.1
V 13.3
2.1pp 1.050xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 380 avg 3 books
52
Eugenio Suárez CIN
IN
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 3
 11.9%Fangorn 21.7%market -9.9pp
P 12.6
F 11.9
V 14.0
2.1pp 1.101xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 360 avg 3 books
53
Pete Alonso BAL
IN
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 2
 12.1%Fangorn 23.0%market -10.8pp
P 14.4
F 12.1
V 14.8
2.6pp 1.058xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 335 avg 3 books
54
Kyle Schwarber PHI
IN
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3
 12.4%Fangorn 27.0%market -14.6pp
P 13.4
F 12.4
V 13.8
1.4pp 0.998xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 270 avg 3 books

Data context

779 sample flags
Status2428roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.