Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs
Home run board.
Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.
HR BOARD 2026-08-31 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay
PALANTIR production
FANGORN nonlinear lane
VALINOR calibrated lane
LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health
2026-08-31
Palantir
17748 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.008
14d stable
Fangorn
17748 props
Brier 0.118
ECE 0.009
14d stable
Valinor
12111 props
Brier 0.112
ECE 0.005
14d stable
Model Lane
Home Runs
Choose the model that drives this board.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
| # | Player | Matchup | Sim | Implied | Gap | Three lanes · P/F/V | Spread | Park | Weather | Recent | Best line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 |
Nico Hoerner
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 1 |
11.4%Valinor | 7.7%market | +3.4pp |
P
8.9
F
11.7
V
11.4
|
2.8pp | 1.115xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 02 |
Zach McKinstry
DET
IN
|
DET vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 1 |
10.1%Valinor | 8.7%market | +1.1pp |
P
9.8
F
11.9
V
10.1
|
2.1pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books |
| 03 |
José Tena
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 6 |
8.8%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.8pp |
P
10.1
F
12.4
V
8.8
|
3.6pp | 1.027xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 04 |
Willi Castro
COL
IN
|
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 1 |
10.9%Valinor | 9.9%market | +0.6pp |
P
11.2
F
11.9
V
10.9
|
1.0pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 875 avg 3 books |
| 05 | IN | SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 7 |
10.1%Valinor | 9.6%market | +0.1pp |
P
11.3
F
11.7
V
10.1
|
1.7pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 905 avg 3 books |
| 06 |
Adley Rutschman
BAL
Lineup pending
|
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 5 |
12.3%Valinor | 12.4%market | -0.1pp |
P
12.2
F
11.9
V
12.3
|
0.4pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Strong Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 705 avg 3 books |
| 07 |
Tyler Stephenson
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 5 |
12.6%Valinor | 12.3%market | -0.2pp |
P
10.7
F
11.9
V
12.6
|
1.9pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 680 avg 3 books |
| 08 |
Keibert Ruiz
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 5 |
10.0%Valinor | 10.0%market | -0.4pp |
P
10.2
F
11.9
V
10.0
|
1.9pp | 1.027xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 865 avg 3 books |
| 09 |
Roman Anthony
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 2 |
12.0%Valinor | 12.6%market | -0.6pp |
P
14.0
F
12.6
V
12.0
|
2.0pp | 1.113xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 695 avg 3 books |
| 10 |
Brice Turang
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 1 |
9.8%Valinor | 10.1%market | -0.8pp |
P
13.5
F
12.6
V
9.8
|
3.8pp | 1.115xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 850 avg 3 books |
| 11 |
Jung Hoo Lee
SF
IN
|
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 7 |
7.2%Valinor | 7.7%market | -0.8pp |
P
8.6
F
11.3
V
7.2
|
4.1pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 12 |
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
IN
|
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 4 |
12.6%Valinor | 13.1%market | -0.9pp |
P
13.4
F
11.9
V
12.6
|
1.5pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 640 avg 3 books |
| 13 |
Daylen Lile
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 3 |
10.6%Valinor | 11.1%market | -0.9pp |
P
15.0
F
11.7
V
10.6
|
4.4pp | 1.027xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 765 avg 3 books |
| 14 |
Luis García Jr.
WSH
IN
|
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 4 |
12.1%Valinor | 13.0%market | -0.9pp |
P
13.1
F
12.4
V
12.1
|
1.1pp | 1.027xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 670 avg 3 books |
| 15 | IN | MIL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 3 |
12.0%Valinor | 12.5%market | -1.0pp |
P
12.8
F
12.4
V
12.0
|
0.8pp | 1.115xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 670 avg 3 books |
| 16 |
Alex Bregman
CHC
IN
|
CHC vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 5 |
14.8%Valinor | 15.3%market | -1.0pp |
P
13.4
F
12.6
V
14.8
|
2.3pp | 1.115xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 17 | IN | AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 3 |
8.8%Valinor | 9.5%market | -1.0pp |
P
13.3
F
12.6
V
8.8
|
4.5pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 915 avg 3 books |
| 18 | Lineup pending | SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 14.4%market | -1.1pp |
P
12.9
F
11.9
V
13.8
|
2.0pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 570 avg 3 books |
| 19 |
Alec Bohm
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 5 |
9.9%Valinor | 10.7%market | -1.3pp |
P
10.5
F
11.9
V
9.9
|
2.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 795 avg 3 books |
| 20 |
Jarren Duran
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 1 |
10.9%Valinor | 11.8%market | -1.4pp |
P
14.5
F
12.4
V
10.9
|
3.7pp | 1.113xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 715 avg 3 books |
| 21 |
Tj Friedl
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 2 |
11.9%Valinor | 13.3%market | -1.5pp |
P
13.5
F
12.1
V
11.9
|
1.6pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 650 avg 3 books |
| 22 |
Brenton Doyle
COL
Lineup pending
|
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 5 |
11.8%Valinor | 12.7%market | -1.5pp |
P
12.7
F
11.9
V
11.8
|
0.9pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 655 avg 3 books |
| 23 |
Ian Happ
CHC
Lineup pending
|
CHC vs MILKyle Harrison · slot 4 |
13.8%Valinor | 15.0%market | -1.7pp |
P
14.7
F
12.6
V
13.8
|
2.2pp | 1.115xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 24 |
Trea Turner
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 1 |
13.1%Valinor | 14.3%market | -1.7pp |
P
13.2
F
12.1
V
13.1
|
1.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 575 avg 3 books |
| 25 |
Cj Abrams
WSH
Lineup pending
|
WSH vs MIARyan Gusto · slot 1 |
12.8%Valinor | 14.1%market | -1.8pp |
P
15.5
F
12.6
V
12.8
|
3.0pp | 1.027xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 585 avg 3 books |
| 26 |
Jordan Beck
COL
IN
|
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 7 |
8.6%Valinor | 10.0%market | -1.8pp |
P
13.7
F
11.3
V
8.6
|
5.1pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 860 avg 3 books |
| 27 |
Heliot Ramos
SF
Lineup pending
|
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 5 |
11.8%Valinor | 13.2%market | -1.9pp |
P
14.0
F
12.6
V
11.8
|
2.2pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 630 avg 3 books |
| 28 |
Lawrence Butler
ATH
IN
|
ATH vs TEXJacob deGrom · slot 4 |
13.7%Valinor | 15.1%market | -1.9pp |
P
15.0
F
12.6
V
13.7
|
2.4pp | 1.137xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 540 avg 3 books |
| 29 | IN | SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 3 |
14.3%Valinor | 15.7%market | -1.9pp |
P
13.8
F
11.7
V
14.3
|
2.6pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 30 |
Brandon Marsh
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 6 |
9.4%Valinor | 11.0%market | -2.1pp |
P
11.0
F
12.4
V
9.4
|
3.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 770 avg 3 books |
| 31 |
Colt Keith
DET
IN
|
DET vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 6 |
8.5%Valinor | 10.6%market | -2.5pp |
P
10.8
F
11.7
V
8.5
|
3.3pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 810 avg 3 books |
| 32 |
Jj Bleday
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 6 |
10.6%Valinor | 13.0%market | -2.8pp |
P
11.5
F
11.1
V
10.6
|
0.9pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 645 avg 3 books |
| 33 |
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 1 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.3%market | -2.9pp |
P
15.2
F
12.6
V
13.0
|
2.6pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 530 avg 3 books |
| 34 | IN | SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 1 |
14.1%Valinor | 16.7%market | -3.1pp |
P
14.3
F
12.6
V
14.1
|
1.8pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 35 | Lineup pending | AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 5 |
10.9%Valinor | 13.7%market | -3.2pp |
P
11.2
F
11.7
V
10.9
|
0.8pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 605 avg 3 books |
| 36 |
Josh Bell
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 4 |
11.9%Valinor | 15.0%market | -3.5pp |
P
12.7
F
12.1
V
11.9
|
0.7pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 545 avg 3 books |
| 37 |
Trevor Larnach
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 7 |
8.9%Valinor | 12.5%market | -3.6pp |
P
11.6
F
12.1
V
8.9
|
3.2pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 BetMGM 700 avg 3 books |
| 38 |
Christian Yelich
MIL
IN
|
MIL vs CHCClay Holmes · slot 2 |
13.2%Valinor | 16.7%market | -4.0pp |
P
16.1
F
14.1
V
13.2
|
2.9pp | 1.115xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 480 avg 3 books |
| 39 |
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 1 |
14.1%Valinor | 17.7%market | -4.2pp |
P
14.4
F
12.1
V
14.1
|
2.3pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 445 avg 3 books |
| 40 |
Taylor Ward
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 4 |
13.6%Valinor | 17.4%market | -4.5pp |
P
15.3
F
12.6
V
13.6
|
2.7pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 455 avg 3 books |
| 41 |
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 3 |
13.8%Valinor | 26.5%market | -13.6pp |
P
13.4
F
12.4
V
13.8
|
1.4pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 265 avg 3 books |
| 42 |
Luke Keaschall
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 1 |
12.0%Valinor | 10.5%market | +1.2pp |
P
9.3
F
9.3
V
12.0
|
2.8pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 820 avg 3 books |
| 43 |
Luis Arraez
SF
IN
|
SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 1 |
8.9%Valinor | 7.7%market | +0.9pp |
P
7.8
F
11.3
V
8.9
|
3.6pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books |
| 44 |
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
IN
|
BOS vs SEAGeorge Kirby · slot 4 |
13.0%Valinor | 15.7%market | -3.2pp |
P
14.3
F
12.6
V
13.0
|
1.8pp | 1.113xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 515 avg 3 books |
| 45 | IN | DET vs MINTaj Bradley · slot 5 |
13.6%Valinor | 16.5%market | -3.5pp |
P
13.5
F
12.4
V
13.6
|
1.2pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 485 avg 3 books |
| 46 |
Royce Lewis
MIN
IN
|
MIN vs DETJackson Jobe · slot 5 |
12.1%Valinor | 15.2%market | -3.6pp |
P
9.6
F
11.7
V
12.1
|
2.6pp | 0.995xHR pf | Neutralweather | Low Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 535 avg 3 books |
| 47 | IN | SD vs CINBrady Singer · slot 2 |
14.5%Valinor | 18.4%market | -4.6pp |
P
13.6
F
12.4
V
14.5
|
2.0pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 425 avg 3 books |
| 48 |
Bryce Harper
PHI
IN
|
PHI vs AZBrandon Pfaadt · slot 2 |
14.0%Valinor | 19.1%market | -5.8pp |
P
14.5
F
12.4
V
14.0
|
2.1pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 405 avg 3 books |
| 49 | IN | AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 1 |
12.3%Valinor | 17.9%market | -6.2pp |
P
15.4
F
12.6
V
12.3
|
3.0pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 440 avg 3 books |
| 50 |
Hunter Goodman
COL
IN
|
COL vs BALCade Povich · slot 2 |
13.1%Valinor | 18.9%market | -6.5pp |
P
15.1
F
12.6
V
13.1
|
2.6pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 410 avg 3 books |
| 51 | IN | SF vs ATLBryce Elder · slot 2 |
13.3%Valinor | 20.3%market | -7.7pp |
P
14.3
F
12.1
V
13.3
|
2.1pp | 1.050xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 375 avg 3 books |
| 52 |
Eugenio Suárez
CIN
IN
|
CIN vs SDMichael King · slot 3 |
14.0%Valinor | 21.2%market | -8.0pp |
P
12.6
F
11.9
V
14.0
|
2.1pp | 1.101xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 355 avg 3 books |
| 53 |
Pete Alonso
BAL
IN
|
BAL vs COLTanner Gordon · slot 2 |
14.8%Valinor | 22.4%market | -8.5pp |
P
14.4
F
12.1
V
14.8
|
2.6pp | 1.058xHR pf | Hitter-Friendlyweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 330 avg 3 books |
| 54 |
Ketel Marte
AZ
IN
|
AZ vs PHIAaron Nola · slot 2 |
12.7%Valinor | 20.5%market | -8.6pp |
P
14.2
F
12.6
V
12.7
|
1.7pp | 0.998xHR pf | Neutralweather | Moderate Damageform | 0.5 DraftKings 370 avg 3 books |
Data context
779 sample flagsStatus2428roster/transaction rows
Lineups216confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows
Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.