Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-05-04 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-05-04
0 activated plays
Gap rows 237
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-07 Older: 2026-04-30

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Yandy Díaz

Strong

TB vs TOR | Eric Lauer

Value Score 41.6
Odds / Gap +550 / +7.62%
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.014x

Value Rank #2

Bo Bichette

Strong

NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 36.9
Odds / Gap +725 / +8.09%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 0.974x

Value Rank #3

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera

Value Score 32.0
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.06%
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.027x

Value Rank #4

Francisco Lindor

Lean

NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 31.1
Odds / Gap +420 / +2.88%
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 0.974x

Value Rank #5

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera

Value Score 28.6
Odds / Gap +540 / +5.51%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.027x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+8.09%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+8.01%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+8.01%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs TOR | Eric Lauer | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+7.62%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+7.50%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+7.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.06%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.06%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.82%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.82%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+5.11%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.64%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.11%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+6.11%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+4.77%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-9.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs MIL | Chad Patrick | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+6.00%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+6.00%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+6.00%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+5.70%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+5.61%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.51%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.38%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.26%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+5.42%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+5.42%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+5.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+5.28%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+5.20%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+5.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+5.16%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+5.02%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+4.97%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.69%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.69%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.60%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+4.68%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+4.59%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+4.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+4.46%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.35%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+4.35%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+4.43%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+3.30%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-7.69%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.02%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.94%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs MIL | Chad Patrick | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+3.94%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+3.94%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+3.94%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+3.88%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+3.75%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+3.75%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+3.49%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+3.38%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+3.38%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.4
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.46%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+3.37%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.37%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+3.24%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+3.12%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+3.12%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+3.24%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+3.17%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+3.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.10%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.94%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.78%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+3.05%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.05%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+3.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.4
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+2.97%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+2.81%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+2.73%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+2.94%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+2.66%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+2.66%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+2.88%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+2.69%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+2.50%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+2.85%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+2.78%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+2.78%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+2.81%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+2.66%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+2.61%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+2.47%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+2.37%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.37%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.31%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.17%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+2.26%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+1.25%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.61%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.23%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.23%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.23%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.18%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.07%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+2.18%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+1.85%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.15%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.07%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.11%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+2.11%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+2.11%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.00%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+1.91%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+1.91%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+1.91%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+1.78%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+1.66%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+1.81%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+1.69%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+1.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs MIL | Chad Patrick | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.72%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.72%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.72%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.68%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.53%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.37%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+1.42%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.26%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+1.21%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.1
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.30%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.14%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.19%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.88%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.00%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.87%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+0.74%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.89%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.89%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+0.76%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.76%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.86%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.71%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.55%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.75%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.13%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-4.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+0.73%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.59%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
+0.69%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-0.40%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-4.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+0.60%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+0.47%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+0.47%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.58%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+0.45%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.45%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+0.36%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.22%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.07%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+0.33%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.17%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.17%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.24%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.24%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.18%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.32%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 102.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.13%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.23%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.08%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.08%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs TOR | Eric Lauer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
-0.09%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
-1.16%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-3.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-0.11%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-0.27%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-0.44%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.56%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.72%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.88%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.61%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.61%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.61%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 104.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.73%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.88%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.03%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.84%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.03%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.22%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.86%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.99%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.99%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.88%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-1.82%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.48%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.90%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.21%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-1.21%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
-0.93%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-1.83%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-2.12%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.95%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.41%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.65%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-0.97%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-1.34%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.34%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.03%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.24%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.45%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs CHC | Edward Cabrera | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.15%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.78%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.24%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.16%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.92%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.24%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.56%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.56%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
-1.25%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-1.40%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
-1.56%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-1.42%
17.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-1.79%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-2.10%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs LAA | José Soriano | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.44%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.44%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.44%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.44%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.64%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%