Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-04-30 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-04-30
0 activated plays
Gap rows 273
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-04 Older: 2026-04-28

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bobby Witt Jr.

Play

KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs

Value Score 45.8
Odds / Gap +455 / +6.06%
1+ HR 24.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.114x

Value Rank #2

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen

Value Score 32.9
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.20%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.992x

Value Rank #3

Salvador Perez

Lean

KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs

Value Score 32.8
Odds / Gap +440 / +3.74%
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.114x

Value Rank #4

Ezequiel Tovar

Play

COL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott

Value Score 29.6
Odds / Gap +645 / +6.67%
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.992x

Value Rank #5

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen

Value Score 29.6
Odds / Gap +540 / +5.66%
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.992x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+8.24%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+8.08%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+8.08%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.20%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.20%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+7.12%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+6.80%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+6.68%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+6.68%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+6.67%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+6.58%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+6.43%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+6.43%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+6.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+6.30%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+6.20%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+6.14%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.6
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+6.15%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+6.04%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+6.04%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+6.06%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+5.73%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+5.73%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.87%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+5.87%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.79%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+5.74%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+5.61%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+5.56%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.3
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.66%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.53%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.41%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.42%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.34%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.34%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+5.23%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+5.10%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+5.10%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.14%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+5.14%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.80%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.11%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.00%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.00%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+5.10%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+4.99%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+4.93%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.6
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+4.95%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.79%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+4.74%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+4.93%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+4.84%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+4.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.82%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.82%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.64%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.56%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.56%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+4.62%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.51%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+4.51%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Fitzgerald headshot

Tyler Fitzgerald
SF vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +730 / U -1075
+4.57%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1140
+4.57%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +725 / U --
+4.50%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.7
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+4.56%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+4.56%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+4.34%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+4.20%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+4.15%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.34%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.34%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.25%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+4.30%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.23%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+4.15%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.15%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.15%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.07%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.03%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+3.97%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+3.90%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+4.01%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+3.89%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+3.89%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.96%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+3.87%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.87%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
+3.87%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+3.73%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
+3.59%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+3.82%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+3.82%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+3.82%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs ATH | Jeffrey Springs | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+3.74%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+3.57%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+3.39%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+3.68%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+3.59%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+3.65%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+3.55%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+3.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.27%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.17%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+2.99%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.84%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.84%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+2.85%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+2.71%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+2.66%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+2.67%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+2.56%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+2.51%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.1
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+2.49%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+2.35%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+2.21%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+2.39%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+1.17%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-5.63%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+2.34%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+1.31%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-5.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+2.27%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+2.27%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.27%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+2.02%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+1.85%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+1.68%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+2.02%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+2.02%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+1.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+1.75%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+1.63%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+1.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.63%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.49%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.49%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+1.42%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.14%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.41%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+1.16%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+0.90%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.34%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.17%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+1.00%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+1.30%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.05%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-4.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.28%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.98%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.98%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs NYM | Freddy Peralta | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.22%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.22%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.22%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.12%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.97%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.81%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.97%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.82%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.66%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+0.96%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.04%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-4.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+0.88%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+0.55%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+0.87%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.59%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+0.59%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+0.59%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.58%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.39%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+0.20%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.13%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.02%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.18%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.10%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-0.09%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.28%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.04%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-0.20%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.44%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.08%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.97%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.27%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-0.45%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.77%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.77%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.47%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.43%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.85%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
-0.53%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
-0.65%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
-0.65%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.4
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.71%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.10%
19.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.10%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.82%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.82%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.82%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.1
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-0.83%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.02%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-1.21%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs MIL | Brandon Woodruff | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.88%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.77%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.98%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.18%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.39%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.11%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.97%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.18%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.25%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.68%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.14%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs STL | Hunter Dobbins | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.33%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.33%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.33%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.38%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.58%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.79%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.41%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.41%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.6
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.47%
15.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.88%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-2.01%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%