Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-07-21 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-07-21

0 activated plays

Gap rows 231

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Newer: 2026-07-22 Older: 2026-07-20

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-07-27 2026-07-26 2026-07-25 2026-07-24 2026-07-23 2026-07-22 2026-07-20

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker

Value Score 43.0

Odds / Gap +640 / +8.59%

1+ HR 22.1%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.166x

Value Rank #2

Freddie Freeman

Play

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler

Value Score 36.0

Odds / Gap +495 / +5.58%

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.124x

Value Rank #3

Ryan O'Hearn

Strong

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren

Value Score 32.8

Odds / Gap +640 / +7.11%

1+ HR 20.6%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.103x

Value Rank #4

Bryan Reynolds

Play

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren

Value Score 32.6

Odds / Gap +615 / +6.95%

1+ HR 20.9%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.103x

Value Rank #5

Ozzie Albies

Play

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler

Value Score 32.0

Odds / Gap +615 / +6.86%

1+ HR 20.8%

DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.054x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4

Strong

Best Gap +8.59%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+8.59%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+8.59%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+8.59%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jarren Duran

BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.25%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +715 / U -1045

+7.25%

11.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +715 / U -1110

+7.25%

11.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +715 / U --

+7.25%

12.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ryan O'Hearn

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 3

Strong

Best Gap +7.11%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -895

+7.11%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+7.11%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+7.01%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Adley Rutschman

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5

Strong

Best Gap +7.10%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1030

+7.10%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1090

+7.03%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

+7.03%

12.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ryan Mountcastle

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 7

Strong

Best Gap +7.07%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

+7.07%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

+6.95%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

+6.95%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bryan Reynolds

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.95%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+6.95%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -850

+6.86%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+6.86%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +6.86%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+6.86%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+6.86%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+6.77%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Horwitz

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.79%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +755 / U -1115

+6.79%

11.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +750 / U -1185

+6.73%

11.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +745 / U --

+6.66%

11.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.84%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1150

+5.84%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+5.77%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+5.77%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6

Willi Castro

COL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.81%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +885 / U -1400

+5.81%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +870 / U -1480

+5.65%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+5.65%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1

Cj Abrams

WSH vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.78%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +590 / U -850

+5.78%

13.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +585 / U -800

+5.67%

14.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +585 / U --

+5.67%

14.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Freddie Freeman

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.58%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -680

+5.58%

16.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+5.44%

17.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +485 / U -640

+5.30%

16.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Mike Yastrzemski

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.54%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -900

+5.54%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +610 / U -845

+5.45%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+5.45%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edouard Julien

COL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.38%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +790 / U -1195

+5.38%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +785 / U -1270

+5.32%

10.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +785 / U --

+5.32%

11.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.36%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +880 / U -1395

+5.36%

9.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+5.25%

10.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +865 / U -1475

+5.20%

10.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.28%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -950

+5.28%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1010

+5.28%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +665 / U --

+5.20%

13.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.1

Luis García Jr.

WSH vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.24%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +675 / U -965

+5.24%

12.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +675 / U -1025

+5.24%

12.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+5.15%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Roman Anthony

BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.04%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +700 / U -1010

+5.04%

12.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1070

+5.04%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +695 / U --

+4.96%

12.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jesús Sánchez

TOR vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.93%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+4.93%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+4.85%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+4.85%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tj Friedl

CIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +4.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+4.90%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -985

+4.90%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+4.82%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.7

Shohei Ohtani

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.88%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 22.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+4.88%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+3.17%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-7.70%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.56%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +700 / U -1015

+4.56%

12.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1075

+4.56%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +695 / U --

+4.48%

12.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +4.22%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 12.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+4.22%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+4.22%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+4.22%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.3

Elly De La Cruz

CIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +4.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+4.13%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+4.00%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+3.88%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Mookie Betts

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.04%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +525 / U -735

+4.04%

15.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +520 / U --

+3.91%

16.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -690

+3.78%

15.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nathan Lukes

TOR vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.77%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +960 / U -1590

+3.77%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +945 / U --

+3.63%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +940 / U -1680

+3.58%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.5

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.66%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+3.66%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+3.66%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+3.58%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.55%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+3.55%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+3.43%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+3.43%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jj Bleday

CIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.19%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +650 / U -970

+3.19%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +645 / U -910

+3.10%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +645 / U --

+3.10%

13.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.16%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 15.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+3.16%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

+2.17%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-6.45%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yoán Moncada

LAA vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.16%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -975

+3.16%

12.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +650 / U -920

+3.08%

12.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+3.08%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Steer

CIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +600 / U -825

+3.13%

13.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +600 / U -875

+3.13%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +595 / U --

+3.03%

14.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Tyler Stephenson

CIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +685 / U -980

+2.90%

12.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +680 / U -1040

+2.82%

12.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +680 / U --

+2.82%

12.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Drake Baldwin

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +2.81%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -740

+2.81%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+2.68%

16.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +520 / U -695

+2.55%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cedric Mullins

TB vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +2.80%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+2.80%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+2.80%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+2.80%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.64%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+2.64%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+2.50%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+2.50%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Tucker

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.42%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -570

+2.42%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

+2.24%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

+2.06%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Gunnar Henderson

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.34%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+2.34%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+2.04%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+2.04%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

José Tena

WSH vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.21%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+2.21%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+2.21%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+2.21%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willson Contreras

BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.20%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -750

+2.20%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -705

+2.08%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

+2.08%

15.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +920 / U -1485

+2.06%

9.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +905 / U --

+1.91%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +900 / U -1570

+1.86%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Zach Neto

LAA vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.85%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+1.85%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+1.69%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+1.53%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

TOR vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.77%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +495 / U -685

+1.77%

16.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +490 / U -640

+1.63%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +490 / U --

+1.63%

17.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Taylor Ward

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.75%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+1.75%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+1.58%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

+1.40%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Lane Thomas

KC vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.67%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+1.67%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+1.67%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+1.67%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs COL | Michael Lorenzen | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+1.65%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+1.35%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+1.35%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Teoscar Hernández

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -605

+1.50%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+1.33%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

+1.16%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.30%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.30%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.80%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.80%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.1

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -560

+1.24%

18.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -525

+0.87%

18.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +415 / U --

+0.87%

19.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

George Springer

TOR vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+1.19%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.88%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+0.88%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +1.15%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 22.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -475

+1.15%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

+0.69%

21.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +355 / U -445

+0.45%

21.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jake Mangum

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.10%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.10%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.10%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9

Wilyer Abreu

BOS vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.10%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+1.10%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+0.97%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+0.97%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Dansby Swanson

CHC vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.07%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -880

+1.07%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -825

+0.96%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

+0.96%

14.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.72%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 8.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.72%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.72%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+0.72%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.8

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+0.68%

16.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -600

+0.52%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+0.52%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ian Happ

CHC vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+0.68%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+0.56%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+0.56%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+0.68%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.37%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+0.37%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jorge Soler

LAA vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.65%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+0.65%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+0.49%

18.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+0.32%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Logan O'Hoppe

LAA vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.62%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +510 / U -705

+0.62%

15.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +505 / U --

+0.48%

16.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +500 / U -660

+0.34%

16.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daulton Varsho

TOR vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.26%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+0.26%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+0.11%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-0.05%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9

Brandon Lowe

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.24%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -520

+0.24%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

+0.03%

20.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +385 / U -485

-0.18%

19.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Eugenio Suárez

CIN vs SEA | Luis Castillo | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +355 / U -445

+0.06%

21.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +370 / U -475

-0.90%

20.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +360 / U --

-3.45%

21.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Marcell Ozuna

PIT vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-0.01%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-0.23%

21.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-0.46%

20.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Alex Bregman

CHC vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -755

-0.06%

15.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

-0.18%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

-0.18%

15.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.34%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

-0.34%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

-1.47%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-2.92%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Pete Alonso

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.34%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +315 / U -385

-0.34%

23.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +330 / U -415

-1.54%

22.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +320 / U --

-2.85%

23.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jo Adell

LAA vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.46%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -475

-0.46%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +390 / U -505

-1.32%

19.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-2.98%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler O'Neill

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.47%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -575

-0.47%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

-0.65%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-0.83%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jahmai Jones

DET vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.55%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -885

-0.55%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -830

-0.66%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

-0.66%

14.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Riley Greene

DET vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -0.86%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -620

-0.86%

16.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +485 / U -660

-1.59%

16.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

-2.64%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Max Muncy

LAD vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.87%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -565

-0.87%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-1.05%

19.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-1.24%

18.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Mike Trout

LAA vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.87%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-0.87%

18.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +405 / U --

-1.06%

19.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-1.26%

19.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -585

-1.08%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -625

-1.89%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-2.34%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Salvador Perez

KC vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.09%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

-1.09%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-1.25%

18.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

-1.41%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Spencer Torkelson

DET vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.38%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-1.38%

17.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +475 / U -645

-1.83%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

-2.14%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nico Hoerner

CHC vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.44%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.44%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.44%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.44%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.4

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 421

Latest Date 2026-07-27

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-07-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	195 matched 0 unmatched	34 / 57 / 24 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 48.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	42 / 82 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 William Contreras \| 54.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 0 unmatched	19 / 67 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 44.4	-- Signals --
2026-07-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	291 matched 0 unmatched	5 / 61 / 72 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Brandon Nimmo \| 36.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-23 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	87 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 25 / 26 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Nick Castellanos \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-07-22 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	294 matched 24 unmatched	15 / 61 / 60 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Trea Turner \| 45.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-21 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	231 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 50 / 42 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Andrew Benintendi \| 43.0	-- Signals --
2026-07-20 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	345 matched 0 unmatched	46 / 64 / 80 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 46.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356

Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821

Over Hit Rate 15.9%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%