Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-06 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-06
0 activated plays
Gap rows 234
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-07 Older: 2026-08-05

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Jarren Duran

Strong

BOS vs CWS | Luis Castillo

Value Score 43.7
Odds / Gap +715 / +9.03%
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.111x

Value Rank #2

Bryce Harper

Lean

PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas

Value Score 33.9
Odds / Gap +415 / +3.13%
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.090x

Value Rank #3

Trea Turner

Play

PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas

Value Score 33.2
Odds / Gap +580 / +6.74%
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.090x

Value Rank #4

Corbin Carroll

Lean

AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler

Value Score 24.0
Odds / Gap +450 / +2.76%
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Value Rank #5

Zach Neto

Lean

LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young

Value Score 21.5
Odds / Gap +490 / +3.35%
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.107x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +9.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+9.03%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+9.03%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+9.03%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+7.72%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+7.59%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+7.59%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+7.70%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+7.58%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+7.58%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+7.28%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+7.15%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+7.10%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.3
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+6.74%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+6.64%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+6.64%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+6.65%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+6.65%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+6.57%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+6.59%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+6.43%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+6.35%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Austin Hays headshot

Austin Hays
CWS vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+6.33%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +725 / U -1125
+6.33%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.25%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.76%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+5.76%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+4.57%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-8.93%
25.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+5.41%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.41%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+5.31%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+5.28%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+5.22%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+5.15%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+5.27%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+5.19%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.19%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+5.26%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+5.17%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.17%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.12%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.04%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.04%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+5.11%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+5.01%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+5.01%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+5.01%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+4.87%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+4.82%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -915
+4.75%
13.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.65%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.65%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.62%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.62%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.53%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+4.13%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+4.01%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+4.01%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+4.00%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+3.88%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+3.88%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+3.93%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+3.79%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+3.74%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1440
+3.91%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+3.81%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +885 / U -1525
+3.76%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+3.71%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+3.59%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+3.59%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+3.57%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+3.42%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+3.37%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.53%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+3.45%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.45%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.41%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+3.32%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.32%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.37%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.25%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.25%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.35%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+3.35%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+3.21%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+3.06%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+3.13%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+2.94%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.75%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.76%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.59%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+2.42%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+2.72%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.40%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.40%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+2.70%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.54%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+2.49%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.1
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.68%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+2.68%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+1.65%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-6.03%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.65%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.65%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.65%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.50%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.50%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.50%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.49%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.36%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.36%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+2.47%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+2.35%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+2.35%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.4
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.20%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+0.86%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.42%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.18%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.03%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.88%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.16%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.16%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.16%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.02%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
+1.89%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.89%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+1.95%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+1.87%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+1.87%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+1.87%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.75%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.75%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 24.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.85%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+1.60%
22.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+1.34%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+1.76%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+0.54%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-5.00%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+1.68%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.53%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+1.37%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.45%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.29%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.29%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+1.41%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+1.30%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+1.30%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.41%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.10%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.10%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+1.37%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+1.37%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+1.29%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+1.34%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+1.16%
9.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+1.11%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
+1.16%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
+0.24%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-4.49%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+1.14%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+1.02%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+1.02%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+1.03%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+0.89%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+0.75%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.97%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+0.73%
22.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.49%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.93%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.93%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.76%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+0.59%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.87%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.87%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.87%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.5
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.70%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+0.70%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.57%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+0.44%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.51%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.33%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.14%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+0.49%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.35%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.35%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+0.17%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+0.00%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-0.17%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.13%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.63%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.37%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.1
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-0.17%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.31%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-0.45%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.38%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.38%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.38%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs MIN | Bailey Ober | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.42%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.58%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.74%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.46%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.63%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.81%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
-0.66%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
-0.79%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
-0.79%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-0.71%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.65%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-2.68%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.77%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.77%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.77%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 103.5
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.78%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.00%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.23%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.88%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-1.05%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-1.23%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
-0.97%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-1.34%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.34%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.18%
15.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.82%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-2.30%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.21%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.67%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.72%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-1.24%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-1.43%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-1.62%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.44%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.69%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-1.91%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs MIL | Dustin May | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.51%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-1.60%
19.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.72%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
-1.68%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
-1.93%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
-1.93%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.6

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 463
Latest Date 2026-09-07
Latest Signals 3
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%