Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-07 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-07
0 activated plays
Gap rows 261
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-08 Older: 2026-08-06

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi

Value Score 46.0
Odds / Gap +710 / +9.34%
1+ HR 21.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.186x

Value Rank #2

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi

Value Score 41.8
Odds / Gap +455 / +5.48%
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.186x

Value Rank #3

Brandon Nimmo

Play

TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz

Value Score 41.6
Odds / Gap +515 / +6.84%
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.186x

Value Rank #4

Wyatt Langford

Strong

TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz

Value Score 36.0
Odds / Gap +570 / +7.03%
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.186x

Value Rank #5

Christian Yelich

Play

MIL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews

Value Score 32.3
Odds / Gap +485 / +4.80%
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.047x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +9.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+9.34%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+9.34%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+9.27%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+7.48%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+7.37%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+7.31%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+7.03%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+6.92%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+6.92%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+6.84%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+6.71%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+6.57%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+6.74%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+6.67%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+6.67%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.68%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.68%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.97%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.50%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+6.68%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+6.68%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.68%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.43%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.43%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.72%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-9.25%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+5.70%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+5.62%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+5.62%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+5.48%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+5.15%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+5.15%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +735 / U -1080
+5.43%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1145
+5.36%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +730 / U --
+5.36%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +740 / U -1085
+5.36%
11.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +735 / U -1155
+5.28%
11.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +735 / U --
+5.28%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.34%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +275 / U -330
+5.34%
25.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +285 / U -355
+4.06%
25.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +280 / U --
-8.40%
26.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+5.23%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+5.10%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+5.10%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.22%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.07%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.07%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+5.05%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+5.05%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+5.05%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+5.01%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+4.87%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+4.82%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.97%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+3.63%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-8.19%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+4.80%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+4.65%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+4.65%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+4.76%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+4.66%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+4.66%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+4.49%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+4.37%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+4.37%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.37%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.25%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.25%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+4.27%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+4.27%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.18%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+3.99%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+3.89%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+3.89%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+3.95%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+3.95%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.87%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.85%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.71%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+3.57%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.79%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.66%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.66%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.65%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+3.65%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+2.66%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-6.94%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+3.33%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.20%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.08%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+3.30%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+3.21%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.21%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+3.23%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+3.08%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+3.03%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.18%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.02%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.86%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+3.13%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.97%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.97%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+3.09%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+3.01%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+3.01%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.06%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+3.06%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+3.06%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.98%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.01%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.92%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.92%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +890 / U -1410
+2.96%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +875 / U -1495
+2.80%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +875 / U --
+2.80%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.95%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.95%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.95%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+2.94%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+2.82%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+2.82%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.49%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+2.35%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.35%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+2.47%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+2.47%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+2.37%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.46%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.33%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.20%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+2.45%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+2.36%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+2.36%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+2.36%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+2.23%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+2.23%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+2.28%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+2.28%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+2.28%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+2.23%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+2.15%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+2.15%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+2.21%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+2.21%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+2.11%
14.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.16%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.16%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.16%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.01%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.88%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.88%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+1.88%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
+0.63%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-4.93%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.83%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.68%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.68%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.83%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.52%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.52%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.69%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.19%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.19%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 100.4
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+1.68%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+0.67%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-5.03%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.45%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.29%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.29%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.41%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.10%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.10%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.35%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.35%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+1.22%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -810
+1.12%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+1.12%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+1.21%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -650
+0.93%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+0.93%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.18%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+0.93%
22.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+0.67%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.92%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.61%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.61%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs PHI | Zack Wheeler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.86%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.71%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.55%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs WSH | Cade Cavalli | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.86%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.10%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-4.25%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.84%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.84%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.84%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.80%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.65%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.49%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.73%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+0.55%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.37%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.60%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.60%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.60%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.8
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+0.49%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.21%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.21%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.49%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.31%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+0.13%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.43%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+0.29%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.29%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+0.33%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+0.20%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+0.20%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.33%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.02%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.02%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.28%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.09%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
-0.10%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.8
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.20%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+0.02%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
-0.16%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.18%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.00%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.19%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs TOR | José Soriano | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+0.11%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.21%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.21%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs PIT | Carmen Mlodzinski | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+0.10%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.09%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
-0.28%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs ATL | Tyler Mahle | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.02%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.34%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-0.34%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.01%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-0.18%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.35%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -495
-0.34%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -530
-1.28%
19.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.05%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs CHC | Kevin Gausman | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.42%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.58%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.74%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.53%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.69%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.85%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.58%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.79%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.01%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.74%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-1.13%
19.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.13%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.78%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.65%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.51%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs TEX | Nathan Eovaldi | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-0.82%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-1.34%
23.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.61%
22.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -0.88%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-0.88%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.71%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.48%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 463
Latest Date 2026-09-07
Latest Signals 3
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%