Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-22 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-22
0 activated plays
Gap rows 234
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-23 Older: 2026-08-21

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka

Value Score 31.8
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.03%
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Value Rank #2

William Contreras

Play

MIL vs ATL | Martín Pérez

Value Score 31.3
Odds / Gap +645 / +6.91%
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.045x

Value Rank #3

Cj Abrams

Play

WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez

Value Score 26.4
Odds / Gap +590 / +5.86%
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.001x

Value Rank #4

Elly De La Cruz

Play

CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka

Value Score 25.8
Odds / Gap +540 / +5.10%
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 0.998x

Value Rank #5

Jose Altuve

Lean

HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez

Value Score 23.0
Odds / Gap +515 / +4.14%
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.056x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +8.49%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+8.49%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.78%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-11.31%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +735 / U -1080
+7.31%
11.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +730 / U -1145
+7.24%
11.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +730 / U --
+7.24%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +740 / U -1085
+7.11%
11.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +735 / U -1155
+7.03%
11.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +735 / U --
+7.03%
12.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.03%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.03%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+6.95%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+6.91%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+6.91%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.82%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+6.48%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+6.32%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+6.32%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+6.23%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+6.17%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+6.17%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+6.16%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+6.16%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+6.08%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.1
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+5.86%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+5.75%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+5.75%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cal Raleigh headshot

Cal Raleigh
SEA vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.81%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +285 / U -345
+5.81%
25.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -370
+4.62%
24.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +290 / U --
-8.98%
25.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+5.77%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+5.69%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+5.69%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+5.49%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+5.41%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+5.41%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +855 / U -1340
+5.38%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +845 / U -1415
+5.27%
10.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +845 / U --
+5.27%
10.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.32%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+5.32%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+5.32%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.23%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.10%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.97%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.85%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+4.95%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.88%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.88%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.72%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.60%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.60%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.70%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+4.70%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.62%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.39%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.30%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.30%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.29%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+4.29%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+4.14%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+4.14%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.5
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.19%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+4.19%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+4.09%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+4.15%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.99%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+3.90%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -720
+4.14%
15.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +510 / U -675
+4.01%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+4.01%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.14%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.14%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.80%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.36%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+3.93%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+3.93%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.93%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+3.91%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+3.82%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+3.82%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yainer Diaz headshot

Yainer Diaz
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+3.82%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -910
+3.82%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+3.72%
14.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.80%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.68%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.68%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+3.74%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+3.63%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+3.58%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+3.67%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.59%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.59%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+3.54%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+3.43%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+3.43%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.45%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+3.45%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+2.44%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-6.80%
22.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.25%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+3.16%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.16%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.11%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.98%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.98%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.08%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.95%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.95%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+2.91%
15.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -650
+2.63%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
+2.63%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+2.90%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.75%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+2.59%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+2.77%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+2.65%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+2.65%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +2.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+2.54%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+2.54%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+2.46%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.45%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+2.45%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+2.33%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+2.33%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+2.44%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+2.33%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+2.33%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+2.33%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+2.21%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+2.21%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+2.14%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+1.15%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-5.43%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs NYY | Ryan Weathers | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+2.12%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.95%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+1.78%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rob Refsnyder headshot

Rob Refsnyder
SEA vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +695 / U -1000
+2.02%
12.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +690 / U -1060
+1.94%
12.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +690 / U --
+1.94%
12.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+1.97%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+1.79%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
+1.61%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.75%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+1.45%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+1.45%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.68%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.68%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.68%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+1.60%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.32%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.32%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brendan Donovan headshot

Brendan Donovan
SEA vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +955 / U -1570
+1.53%
9.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +935 / U --
+1.35%
9.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +930 / U -1655
+1.30%
9.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs BAL | Brandon Young | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.48%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.98%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.98%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.8
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+1.46%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.43%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-4.81%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+1.46%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.30%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+1.25%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 108.1
Randy Arozarena headshot

Randy Arozarena
SEA vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+1.41%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+1.30%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+1.30%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+1.37%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+1.20%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+1.16%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.30%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.14%
17.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+0.98%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+1.25%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.06%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+0.87%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.20%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.05%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.05%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs CWS | Luis Castillo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.61%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-0.64%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-3.66%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+0.55%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.39%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.94%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+0.11%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.88%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.40%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.19%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.37%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.55%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-0.19%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.11%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-3.14%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.19%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.69%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.31%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.4
Julio Rodríguez headshot

Julio Rodríguez
SEA vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.46%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.63%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.81%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.52%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.53%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.77%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
-0.64%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
-0.76%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
-0.76%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.5
Josh Naylor headshot

Josh Naylor
SEA vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
-0.66%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
-0.79%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
-0.79%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs AZ | Michael Soroka | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.85%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.81%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.54%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.01%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -530
-1.01%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +395 / U -495
-1.41%
19.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.41%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs HOU | Hunter Brown | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.17%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
-1.17%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-1.40%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
-1.63%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.21%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.71%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.29%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.7
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
-1.22%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-1.39%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-1.56%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs CLE | Tanner Bibee | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.26%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-1.58%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-1.58%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
-1.28%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
-1.41%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-1.41%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-1.32%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-1.45%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-1.45%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.36%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-1.76%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.12%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs KC | Michael Wacha | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-1.47%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.61%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-1.73%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%