Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-31 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-31
0 activated plays
Gap rows 213
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-01 Older: 2026-08-30

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 43.6
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.99%
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.058x

Value Rank #2

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon

Value Score 40.1
Odds / Gap +455 / +5.23%
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.058x

Value Rank #3

Jarren Duran

Strong

BOS vs SEA | George Kirby

Value Score 37.8
Odds / Gap +715 / +8.18%
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.113x

Value Rank #4

Ezequiel Tovar

Strong

COL vs BAL | Cade Povich

Value Score 36.2
Odds / Gap +645 / +7.63%
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.058x

Value Rank #5

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs SD | Michael King

Value Score 34.5
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.42%
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.101x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.99%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.99%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.92%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+8.18%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+8.18%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+8.18%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+7.63%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+7.54%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.54%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.2
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.42%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.42%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.42%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+7.34%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.3
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 7
Strong
Best Gap +7.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+7.10%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+6.99%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+6.99%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.99%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+6.99%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +655 / U --
+6.99%
13.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+6.98%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+6.88%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+6.82%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.4
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+6.89%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+6.78%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+6.78%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+6.87%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+6.72%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+6.72%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+6.78%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.71%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.71%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+6.22%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+6.11%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+6.05%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+6.20%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+6.20%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+6.11%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+6.15%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+6.04%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+6.04%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.09%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+6.09%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+5.97%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+5.97%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+6.02%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+6.02%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+5.94%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+5.98%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+5.85%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+5.85%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.92%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+5.92%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+5.80%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+5.80%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+5.89%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+5.77%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+5.77%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.74%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.74%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.74%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+5.59%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.48%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+5.43%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+5.49%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+5.37%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+5.37%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.43%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.30%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.18%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+5.31%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+5.21%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+5.21%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+5.23%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.90%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.90%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.18%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
+5.18%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.06%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+5.06%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.12%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+5.12%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+4.98%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+4.93%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.6
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+4.83%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+4.70%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+4.70%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+4.83%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+4.73%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+4.73%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.55%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+4.55%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+4.45%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lawrence Butler headshot

Lawrence Butler
ATH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+4.50%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+4.38%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+4.38%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.39%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+4.39%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.23%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+4.18%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+4.22%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+4.13%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+4.13%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler Soderstrom headshot

Tyler Soderstrom
ATH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +585 / U -845
+4.19%
14.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +580 / U -795
+4.08%
14.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +580 / U --
+4.08%
14.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.09%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+4.09%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.75%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-7.31%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+4.05%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.96%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.96%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+3.93%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+3.85%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+3.85%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.86%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1005 / U -1700
+3.86%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +985 / U --
+3.69%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1795
+3.65%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.2
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.73%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.58%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.58%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.57%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.45%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.45%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.55%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.55%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.47%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+3.31%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+3.18%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+3.18%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+2.91%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+2.79%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+2.79%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs MIL | Kyle Harrison | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.85%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.85%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.85%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 104.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+2.83%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+2.68%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+2.68%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.83%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.67%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.67%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+2.79%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.62%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+2.45%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.77%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.47%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.47%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs MIA | Ryan Gusto | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.73%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.73%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.73%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +2.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.62%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.62%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.62%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+2.50%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+1.16%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-5.72%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.71%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.58%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.58%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.54%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.54%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.23%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.23%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.52%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.52%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.52%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.3
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CIN | Brady Singer | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+1.42%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
+1.24%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
+1.06%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+1.37%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+1.20%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+1.03%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.09%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+0.90%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.71%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.03%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+0.71%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+0.71%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.81%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.67%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.53%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.71%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.59%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.59%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.5
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.61%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.30%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.30%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs ATL | Bryce Elder | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.59%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+0.38%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.16%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -480
+0.53%
20.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
+0.30%
21.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +360 / U -450
+0.07%
21.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.39%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.64%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.74%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs BAL | Cade Povich | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-0.30%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.49%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-0.68%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.36%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.49%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.49%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.60%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.60%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-0.82%
21.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-1.05%
20.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-0.81%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.23%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.45%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.08%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.85%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.31%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs COL | Tanner Gordon | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.10%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-1.62%
23.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.76%
22.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.24%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.24%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.44%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.65%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.28%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.85%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-2.05%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%