Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-01 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-01
0 activated plays
Gap rows 273
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-02 Older: 2026-08-31

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Cj Abrams

Strong

WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver

Value Score 43.6
Odds / Gap +590 / +8.36%
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.117x

Value Rank #2

Ozzie Albies

Strong

ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin

Value Score 39.1
Odds / Gap +615 / +7.90%
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.117x

Value Rank #3

Nick Castellanos

Strong

SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo

Value Score 38.4
Odds / Gap +555 / +7.22%
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.100x

Value Rank #4

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs HOU | Ronel Blanco

Value Score 37.3
Odds / Gap +640 / +7.76%
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.076x

Value Rank #5

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez

Value Score 36.3
Odds / Gap +655 / +7.69%
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.100x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+8.36%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+8.25%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+8.25%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +8.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+8.05%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+7.98%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+7.98%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+7.90%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+7.90%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+7.81%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.81%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+7.81%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+6.10%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-10.63%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+7.76%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+7.76%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.76%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +7.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+7.69%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+7.69%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+7.61%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+7.57%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+7.46%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+7.41%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.7
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+7.54%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+7.54%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+7.45%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+7.22%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+7.11%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+7.11%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+7.02%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+6.95%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+6.95%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.02%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+7.02%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+7.02%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.93%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+6.90%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.83%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.83%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+6.74%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+6.62%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+6.62%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Miguel Andujar headshot

Miguel Andujar
SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1600
+6.56%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+6.43%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1690
+6.38%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.37%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+6.28%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.28%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +775 / U -1155
+6.05%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1225
+5.92%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.92%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.69%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+5.56%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+5.44%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.39%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -335
+5.39%
25.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +290 / U -365
+3.91%
24.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-8.37%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1400
+5.38%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1480
+5.22%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.22%
10.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.3
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+5.17%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+5.11%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+5.11%
11.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.13%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+5.13%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+5.13%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+5.13%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+4.97%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+4.97%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.89%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.5
Bo Bichette headshot

Bo Bichette
NYM vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1060
+4.83%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1125
+4.75%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+4.75%
12.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+4.83%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+4.83%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+4.73%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+4.77%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -745
+4.66%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+4.66%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.76%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.64%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.64%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+4.65%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+4.52%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+4.47%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.7
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+4.55%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+4.43%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+4.43%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+4.53%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+4.37%
17.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+4.21%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.45%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.45%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.37%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.37%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+4.44%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+4.35%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+4.35%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Marcus Semien headshot

Marcus Semien
NYM vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.43%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +630 / U -930
+4.43%
13.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +625 / U -875
+4.34%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+4.34%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1015
+4.40%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+4.32%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.32%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.7
Ramón Laureano headshot

Ramón Laureano
SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +555 / U -790
+4.38%
14.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +550 / U -740
+4.27%
14.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +550 / U --
+4.27%
15.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+4.16%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+3.86%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+3.86%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+4.15%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+4.07%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+4.07%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+4.05%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+3.89%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+3.80%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+4.04%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+3.91%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+3.79%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+3.94%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+3.94%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+3.86%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs LAD | Eric Lauer | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.88%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.79%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.79%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+3.84%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.84%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.74%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.71%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.71%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.71%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +595 / U -865
+3.59%
13.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +590 / U -815
+3.49%
14.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +590 / U --
+3.49%
14.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+3.57%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+3.48%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+3.48%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+3.55%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+3.42%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+3.29%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs ATL | Aj Smith-Shawver | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.54%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.54%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.54%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.8
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+3.53%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+3.39%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.39%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+3.33%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+3.19%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+3.14%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.30%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+3.30%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+2.08%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-6.54%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+3.26%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+3.20%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+3.13%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CHC | Matthew Boyd | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.14%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.01%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.01%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs CIN | Nick Lodolo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+2.90%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+2.71%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+2.52%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.79%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +990 / U -1665
+2.79%
8.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +975 / U --
+2.66%
9.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +965 / U -1760
+2.57%
9.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+2.67%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+2.53%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+2.39%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+2.66%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+2.53%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.53%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs NYM | Sean Manaea | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +335 / U -415
+2.36%
22.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -445
+1.29%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +340 / U --
-5.67%
22.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+2.15%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+1.69%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+1.45%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.10%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+2.10%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+2.01%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+2.01%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs WSH | Jake Irvin | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+2.06%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+1.69%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.69%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.79%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+1.63%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+1.46%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Polanco headshot

Jorge Polanco
NYM vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -675
+1.71%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+1.43%
16.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+1.43%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.34%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.21%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+1.08%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Francisco Lindor headshot

Francisco Lindor
NYM vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -555
+1.28%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+1.09%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -520
+0.90%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.23%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.09%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.09%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+1.20%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+1.07%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+1.07%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+0.92%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+0.67%
22.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+0.41%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.86%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+0.86%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+0.74%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+0.74%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.80%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.63%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.45%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.79%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.79%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.79%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+0.76%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
-0.37%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-4.02%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.57%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.26%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.26%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Juan Soto headshot

Juan Soto
NYM vs TB | Freddy Peralta | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +310 / U -375
+0.52%
23.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +320 / U -405
-0.73%
22.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +315 / U --
-3.57%
24.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -685
+0.21%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
-0.07%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-0.07%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs CWS | Sean Burke | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
+0.18%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.03%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.25%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.13%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-0.76%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.48%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.13%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-0.70%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.49%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.12%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-0.84%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-3.44%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap -0.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.04%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.04%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.04%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.1
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs SEA | Bryan Woo | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.25%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
-0.25%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
-0.38%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.38%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.37%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
-0.52%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.68%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
-0.37%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-0.55%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-0.73%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs AZ | Eduardo Rodriguez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.41%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.59%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -540
-0.77%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +365 / U -450
-0.49%
20.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +375 / U -485
-1.58%
20.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +365 / U --
-2.84%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.52%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.52%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.52%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.7
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
-0.55%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
-0.86%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
-0.86%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs TEX | MacKenzie Gore | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-0.67%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-0.91%
22.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-1.15%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.81%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -585
-0.81%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -625
-1.62%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.61%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs STL | Michael McGreevy | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.98%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
-0.98%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.15%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-1.32%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs PIT | Paul Skenes | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.39%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-1.69%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.90%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs SD | Randy Vásquez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.40%
20.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.53%
21.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-1.86%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs SF | Logan Webb | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.48%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.98%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.02%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.1

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%