Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK

Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-05-19 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-05-19
0 activated plays
Gap rows 270
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-05-21 Older: 2026-05-17

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-06-19 2026-06-18 2026-06-17 2026-06-16 2026-06-15 2026-06-14 2026-06-13 2026-06-12

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Elly De La Cruz

Strong

CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo

Value Score 38.9
Odds / Gap +540 / +7.01%
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.148x

Value Rank #2

José Ramírez

Lean

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero

Value Score 36.3
Odds / Gap +395 / +2.84%
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.096x

Value Rank #3

Jesús Sánchez

Strong

TOR vs NYY | Will Warren

Value Score 33.8
Odds / Gap +685 / +7.47%
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.128x

Value Rank #4

Spencer Steer

Play

CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo

Value Score 33.6
Odds / Gap +570 / +6.69%
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.148x

Value Rank #5

Cody Bellinger

Lean

NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease

Value Score 29.1
Odds / Gap +470 / +3.99%
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.128x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+7.49%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+7.35%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+7.30%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.9
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+7.47%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+7.39%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+7.39%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+7.17%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+7.05%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+7.05%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+7.01%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
+6.88%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+6.88%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+6.69%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -770
+6.58%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+6.58%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +725 / U -1055
+6.46%
11.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +720 / U -1120
+6.38%
11.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +720 / U --
+6.38%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 109.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+6.17%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.17%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.17%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.12%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.12%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.41%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +6.11%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.11%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.40%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.93%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.49%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+5.49%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+5.38%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+5.32%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+5.47%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.36%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+5.31%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.3
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+5.46%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+5.46%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+5.46%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.38%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+5.38%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+5.23%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+5.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.14%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+5.14%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.98%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+4.93%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.07%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.07%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.07%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edouard Julien headshot

Edouard Julien
COL vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +790 / U -1195
+4.98%
10.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +785 / U -1270
+4.92%
10.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +785 / U --
+4.92%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -950
+4.80%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1010
+4.80%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.72%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+4.76%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+4.69%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+4.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+4.62%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+4.55%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+4.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+4.56%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+4.42%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.42%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.53%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+4.53%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+4.53%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.45%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.50%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.36%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+4.22%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +4.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+4.37%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.25%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.25%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.24%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.24%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.15%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.15%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.03%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+4.03%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+2.90%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-7.29%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.99%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.83%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+3.67%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.96%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+3.81%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.65%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.96%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.87%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.87%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1015
+3.91%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1075
+3.91%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+3.83%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+3.89%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+3.89%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.89%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+3.74%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+3.74%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+3.74%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+3.68%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+3.55%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+3.55%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.66%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.66%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.54%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.54%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+3.64%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+3.64%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.64%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.59%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.47%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.47%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.34%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.24%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.24%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CHC | Ben Brown | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.31%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.16%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.16%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.31%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+3.31%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+3.23%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+3.23%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs NYY | Will Warren | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+2.97%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.82%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.66%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.93%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.80%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.67%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +2.84%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+2.84%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+2.63%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+2.42%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+2.74%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+2.60%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+2.55%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.3
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+2.72%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+2.64%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+2.64%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.68%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+2.55%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.55%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+2.67%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+2.67%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+2.67%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.52%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.52%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.40%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.40%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+2.47%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+1.48%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-5.76%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+2.35%
16.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+2.19%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +460 / U -600
+2.03%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.28%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.28%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.28%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.28%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.22%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.09%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+1.97%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.05%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+1.93%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+1.93%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.03%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.03%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.03%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.03%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+2.03%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+1.88%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+1.72%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+1.78%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+1.64%
--
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+1.59%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -430
+1.55%
21.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -460
+0.54%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +350 / U --
-4.90%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+1.53%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+1.38%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+1.38%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.36%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.36%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.36%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 104.4
Ben Rice headshot

Ben Rice
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -730
+1.33%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -685
+1.20%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.20%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+1.26%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+1.09%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.92%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.23%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.05%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.87%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.23%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.92%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.92%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.19%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+1.06%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.06%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+1.14%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.98%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.81%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.06%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.56%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.3
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +510 / U -705
+1.00%
15.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +505 / U --
+0.86%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +500 / U -660
+0.72%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.90%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+0.90%
18.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+0.54%
18.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.54%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.83%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +885 / U -1405
+0.83%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +870 / U -1485
+0.67%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+0.67%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+0.69%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+0.69%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +615 / U --
+0.59%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.09%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.91%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 102.1
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs AZ | Ryne Nelson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.33%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+0.12%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.10%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.33%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.16%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
-0.01%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs PHI | Jesús Luzardo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.31%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+0.31%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+0.06%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-0.20%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.23%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.07%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-0.10%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +0.19%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.19%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.19%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.19%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.4
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs LAD | Emmet Sheehan | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
+0.14%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.04%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.22%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs PIT | Mitch Keller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.07%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.07%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.07%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.39%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +410 / U -540
-0.39%
18.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +405 / U --
-0.58%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +400 / U -505
-0.78%
19.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.61%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.61%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.78%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.96%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
-0.69%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
-1.02%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
-1.02%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.69%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.69%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.69%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.69%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.2
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.78%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.77%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-2.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.79%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -555
-0.79%
18.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-1.57%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-2.63%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.84%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.84%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.73%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.51%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs TEX | Kumar Rocker | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.85%
17.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +460 / U -620
-1.56%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-2.57%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.94%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.94%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.94%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -475
-1.09%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +390 / U -505
-1.93%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.35%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs SD | Griffin Canning | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.23%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.23%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.95%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.13%
--
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +500 / U -690
-1.38%
16.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +495 / U --
-1.52%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -645
-1.66%
16.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.43%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.64%
--
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.65%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.56%
--
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.1

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 396
Latest Date 2026-06-19
Latest Signals 5
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-06-19
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 294 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 45 / 85
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
William Contreras | 30.8
 --
Signals --
2026-06-18
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 195 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 43 / 45
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Trea Turner | 52.3
 --
Signals --
2026-06-17
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 225 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 79 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bo Bichette | 55.2
 --
Signals --
2026-06-16
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 336 matched
0 unmatched
 2 / 71 / 92
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Brandon Nimmo | 38.7
 --
Signals --
2026-06-15
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 168 matched
0 unmatched
 27 / 29 / 36
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 39.6
 --
Signals --
2026-06-14
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 390 matched
0 unmatched
 53 / 83 / 83
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 55.4
 --
Signals --
2026-06-13
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 291 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 53 / 87
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 51.9
 --
Signals --
2026-06-12
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 249 matched
0 unmatched
 24 / 76 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 48.3
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 356
Rows / Graded 145023 / 76821
Over Hit Rate 15.9%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 282 | 15.6%

Play: 713 / 4042 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7401 | 15.0%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 616 / 3870 | 15.9%

DraftKings: 593 / 3783 | 15.7%

FanDuel: 658 / 4072 | 16.2%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1198 / 8625 | 13.9%