Mithrandir Metrics
Valinor lane 2026-09-08 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player prop · Home runs

Home run board.

Compare each hitter across Palantir, Fangorn, Valinor, and the market.

Rows
86
Matched
318
Lineups
270
HR BOARD 2026-09-08 · home_run_edges_v1_overlay PALANTIR production FANGORN nonlinear lane VALINOR calibrated lane LINEUP FILTER active
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable

Model Lane

Home Runs

Choose the model that drives this board.

Lineup filter defaults on. Rows hide players not confirmed in the lineup when lineup data is available. Positive gaps require context. Gaps below 2pp are treated as noise; 5pp is consensus, 6-10pp is soft consensus, and above 10pp is disagreement. Young players are labeled. Hitters under 50 MLB AB or pitchers under 20 MLB IP carry limited-sample context.
Home-run board · largest Valinor gap versus market
# Player Matchup Sim Implied Gap Three lanes · P/F/V Spread Park Weather Recent Best line
01 Lineup pending
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 5
18.4%Valinor 12.5%market +5.5pp
P 9.9
F 11.7
V 18.4
8.5pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
02 IN
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 1
20.7%Valinor 16.9%market +3.1pp
P 14.5
F 13.2
V 20.7
7.5pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 470 avg 3 books
03 IN
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 3
20.2%Valinor 16.7%market +2.8pp
P 16.1
F 16.1
V 20.2
4.1pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 475 avg 3 books
04 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 5
15.0%Valinor 13.5%market +1.0pp
P 13.3
F 12.5
V 15.0
2.5pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
05 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 5
14.5%Valinor 13.5%market +0.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 14.5
2.5pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 615 avg 3 books
06 IN
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 1
9.5%Valinor 8.7%market +0.5pp
P 9.4
F 11.7
V 9.5
2.3pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
07 IN
MIA vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 4
15.5%Valinor 14.6%market +0.3pp
P 12.6
F 12.5
V 15.5
2.9pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 560 avg 3 books
08 IN
MIA vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 6
12.7%Valinor 12.0%market +0.2pp
P 9.9
F 10.7
V 12.7
2.7pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 705 avg 3 books
09 Lineup pending
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 5
12.4%Valinor 11.9%market +0.1pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 12.4
1.7pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 710 avg 3 books
10 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 1
13.7%Valinor 14.3%market -1.1pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 13.7
1.1pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
11 IN
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 2
15.2%Valinor 15.8%market -1.2pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 15.2
2.0pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 510 avg 3 books
12 IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 4
11.6%Valinor 13.0%market -1.4pp
P 12.6
F 12.6
V 11.6
1.0pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 670 avg 3 books
13 IN
MIL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 3
12.0%Valinor 13.5%market -1.5pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 12.0
1.1pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 640 avg 3 books
14 Lineup pending
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 5
8.8%Valinor 10.0%market -1.6pp
P 9.2
F 12.0
V 8.8
3.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 865 avg 3 books
15 IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 3
9.8%Valinor 11.1%market -1.7pp
P 14.1
F 10.7
V 9.8
4.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 765 avg 3 books
16 IN
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 5
11.6%Valinor 13.0%market -1.9pp
P 10.3
F 12.0
V 11.6
1.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 640 avg 3 books
17
Cj Abrams WSH
IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 1
12.7%Valinor 14.1%market -1.9pp
P 14.9
F 13.4
V 12.7
2.2pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 585 avg 3 books
18 IN
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 5
14.8%Valinor 16.2%market -2.0pp
P 14.3
F 13.2
V 14.8
1.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 495 avg 3 books
19
Alec Bohm PHI
IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 5
9.1%Valinor 10.7%market -2.1pp
P 11.4
F 12.0
V 9.1
2.9pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 795 avg 3 books
20 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 6
9.7%Valinor 11.8%market -2.1pp
P 11.8
F 13.2
V 9.7
3.5pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 745 avg 3 books
21 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 2
12.7%Valinor 14.4%market -2.2pp
P 14.1
F 15.3
V 12.7
2.6pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 570 avg 3 books
22 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 3
11.1%Valinor 13.3%market -2.2pp
P 14.0
F 15.3
V 11.1
4.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform BetMGM 650 avg 3 books
23
Bo Naylor CLE
Lineup pending
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 4
11.7%Valinor 13.4%market -2.2pp
P 12.8
F 13.2
V 11.7
1.5pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 620 avg 3 books
24 IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 5
11.5%Valinor 13.3%market -2.3pp
P 10.1
F 10.7
V 11.5
1.4pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 625 avg 3 books
25 IN
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 3
7.5%Valinor 9.5%market -2.3pp
P 12.7
F 13.2
V 7.5
5.7pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 915 avg 3 books
26 Lineup pending
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 6
8.6%Valinor 10.7%market -2.5pp
P 11.0
F 9.7
V 8.6
2.4pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 800 avg 3 books
27 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 6
8.7%Valinor 11.0%market -2.8pp
P 11.9
F 13.4
V 8.7
4.7pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 770 avg 3 books
28 IN
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 1
12.8%Valinor 15.2%market -2.9pp
P 13.6
F 13.2
V 12.8
0.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 535 avg 3 books
29 Lineup pending
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 5
11.1%Valinor 13.6%market -3.0pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 11.1
0.9pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 605 avg 3 books
30 IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 3
9.1%Valinor 11.7%market -3.1pp
P 11.9
F 12.6
V 9.1
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
31 IN
STL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 3
10.5%Valinor 13.3%market -3.3pp
P 12.0
F 13.2
V 10.5
2.7pp 0.954xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 625 avg 3 books
32 IN
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 6
7.5%Valinor 10.6%market -3.5pp
P 10.4
F 11.7
V 7.5
4.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 810 avg 3 books
33 Lineup pending
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 5
10.2%Valinor 13.7%market -4.0pp
P 11.1
F 11.7
V 10.2
1.4pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 605 avg 3 books
34 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 6
9.9%Valinor 13.6%market -4.2pp
P 12.4
F 13.2
V 9.9
3.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 610 avg 3 books
35 Lineup pending
COL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 5
6.9%Valinor 12.0%market -5.6pp
P 10.0
F 11.7
V 6.9
4.8pp 1.034xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 700 avg 3 books
36
Ian Happ CHC
IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 4
9.7%Valinor 15.0%market -5.8pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 9.7
4.2pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 545 avg 3 books
37 IN
COL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 4
7.2%Valinor 13.1%market -5.9pp
P 10.2
F 10.7
V 7.2
3.5pp 1.034xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Low Damageform BetMGM 665 avg 3 books
38 IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 5
9.4%Valinor 14.8%market -5.9pp
P 11.8
F 12.5
V 9.4
3.2pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 555 avg 3 books
39 Lineup pending
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 1
19.7%Valinor 28.4%market -9.7pp
P 13.0
F 13.2
V 19.7
6.7pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 240 avg 3 books
40 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 3
14.6%Valinor 25.8%market -12.1pp
P 12.5
F 10.8
V 14.6
3.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Strong Damageform DraftKings 275 avg 3 books
41 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 1
11.2%Valinor 7.7%market +3.2pp
P 7.8
F 10.3
V 11.2
3.4pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
42 IN
MIA vs NYMSean Manaea · slot 2
12.9%Valinor 9.4%market +3.2pp
P 9.4
F 11.7
V 12.9
3.5pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 930 avg 3 books
43 IN
KC vs AZCorbin Burnes · slot 4
20.3%Valinor 17.2%market +2.5pp
P 13.9
F 13.2
V 20.3
7.2pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 460 avg 3 books
44 Lineup pending
STL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 1
10.3%Valinor 7.7%market +2.3pp
P 4.3
F 0.0
V 10.3
10.2pp 0.954xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
45 IN
MIL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 1
10.5%Valinor 8.7%market +1.5pp
P 9.7
F 12.0
V 10.5
2.3pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 1010 avg 3 books
46 IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 1
8.7%Valinor 7.7%market +0.7pp
P 6.1
F 9.7
V 8.7
3.6pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
47 Lineup pending
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 6
7.6%Valinor 7.7%market -0.4pp
P 9.2
F 12.0
V 7.6
4.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
48 IN
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 2
8.6%Valinor 8.9%market -0.6pp
P 8.4
F 10.8
V 8.6
2.4pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 985 avg 3 books
49
Tj Friedl CIN
Lineup pending
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 2
10.6%Valinor 11.7%market -1.6pp
P 8.9
F 10.7
V 10.6
1.8pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform FanDuel 720 avg 3 books
50 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 1
13.1%Valinor 14.5%market -2.0pp
P 12.7
F 12.5
V 13.1
0.6pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 565 avg 3 books
51 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 5
12.8%Valinor 14.3%market -2.1pp
P 9.1
F 12.0
V 12.8
3.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 575 avg 3 books
52 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 5
12.2%Valinor 14.0%market -2.2pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 12.2
0.2pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 590 avg 3 books
53 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 6
8.9%Valinor 11.0%market -2.5pp
P 12.3
F 12.6
V 8.9
3.7pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 775 avg 3 books
54 IN
STL vs SFLanden Roupp · slot 2
10.5%Valinor 12.5%market -2.5pp
P 11.8
F 12.0
V 10.5
1.5pp 0.954xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform FanDuel 670 avg 3 books
55 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 4
14.4%Valinor 16.4%market -2.6pp
P 10.7
F 11.7
V 14.4
3.7pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Low Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
56 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 1
16.7%Valinor 18.8%market -2.7pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 16.7
4.2pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
57 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 3
13.4%Valinor 15.6%market -2.8pp
P 10.8
F 13.2
V 13.4
2.5pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 520 avg 3 books
58 IN
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 1
15.3%Valinor 17.7%market -3.0pp
P 12.7
F 12.0
V 15.3
3.3pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
59 Lineup pending
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 5
14.1%Valinor 16.5%market -3.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.2
V 14.1
0.9pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 485 avg 3 books
60 Lineup pending
MIL vs CHCDavid Peterson · slot 2
13.2%Valinor 15.7%market -3.0pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 13.2
0.8pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 515 avg 3 books
61 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 3
13.5%Valinor 16.0%market -3.1pp
P 12.9
F 13.2
V 13.5
0.5pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 505 avg 3 books
62 IN
WSH vs SDCasey Mize · slot 2
13.9%Valinor 16.8%market -3.5pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 13.9
1.4pp 1.030xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 475 avg 3 books
63 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 4
13.5%Valinor 16.4%market -3.5pp
P 11.9
F 12.0
V 13.5
1.6pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 490 avg 3 books
64 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 1
4.5%Valinor 7.7%market -3.5pp
P 3.6
F 0.0
V 4.5
4.4pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Strong Damageform FanDuel 1150 avg 3 books
65 IN
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 4
15.6%Valinor 18.6%market -3.7pp
P 12.9
F 12.5
V 15.6
3.0pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 420 avg 3 books
66 Lineup pending
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 4
14.3%Valinor 17.4%market -3.8pp
P 13.5
F 13.2
V 14.3
1.1pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
67 Lineup pending
LAD vs CINNick Lodolo · slot 3
14.5%Valinor 17.7%market -3.9pp
P 13.1
F 12.0
V 14.5
2.5pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 445 avg 3 books
68 IN
ATH vs TORJosé Soriano · slot 4
11.5%Valinor 15.1%market -4.1pp
P 12.1
F 13.2
V 11.5
1.6pp 0.979xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 540 avg 3 books
69 IN
DET vs MINDean Kremer · slot 4
14.5%Valinor 18.1%market -4.2pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.5
1.1pp 0.986xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 435 avg 3 books
70 IN
SEA vs TEXCal Quantrill · slot 1
13.4%Valinor 17.5%market -4.7pp
P 12.5
F 12.0
V 13.4
1.4pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 450 avg 3 books
71 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 2
14.9%Valinor 19.1%market -4.9pp
P 15.6
F 13.4
V 14.9
2.1pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 405 avg 3 books
72 IN
CLE vs BALBrandon Young · slot 1
14.1%Valinor 19.9%market -6.5pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 14.1
1.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
73 IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 2
13.0%Valinor 18.9%market -6.6pp
P 13.5
F 12.5
V 13.0
1.0pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 410 avg 3 books
74 IN
PIT vs CWSSean Burke · slot 4
14.0%Valinor 19.9%market -6.7pp
P 14.8
F 13.2
V 14.0
1.6pp 1.084xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 385 avg 3 books
75 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 4
12.7%Valinor 18.8%market -6.7pp
P 8.5
F 10.7
V 12.7
4.3pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Low Damageform DraftKings 415 avg 3 books
76 Lineup pending
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 1
11.4%Valinor 17.9%market -7.1pp
P 15.2
F 13.4
V 11.4
3.7pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 440 avg 3 books
77 IN
BAL vs CLETanner Bibee · slot 2
16.0%Valinor 22.4%market -7.2pp
P 12.9
F 12.0
V 16.0
4.0pp 1.000xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 330 avg 3 books
78 IN
ATL vs TBFreddy Peralta · slot 2
14.6%Valinor 21.2%market -7.3pp
P 13.8
F 12.6
V 14.6
2.0pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 355 avg 3 books
79 IN
CHC vs MILJacob Misiorowski · slot 3
10.7%Valinor 18.2%market -8.2pp
P 14.8
F 13.4
V 10.7
4.1pp 1.056xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 430 avg 3 books
80 IN
TEX vs SEABryce Miller · slot 2
14.3%Valinor 22.0%market -8.4pp
P 11.5
F 12.0
V 14.3
2.8pp 0.878xHR pf Pitcher-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
81 IN
CIN vs LADTarik Skubal · slot 3
14.2%Valinor 22.0%market -8.5pp
P 12.0
F 12.0
V 14.2
2.2pp 1.012xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 340 avg 3 books
82 IN
TB vs ATLAj Smith-Shawver · slot 4
13.6%Valinor 21.5%market -8.7pp
P 12.7
F 13.4
V 13.6
0.9pp 1.029xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 350 avg 3 books
83 IN
AZ vs KCMichael Wacha · slot 2
11.9%Valinor 20.5%market -9.3pp
P 14.0
F 13.4
V 11.9
2.1pp 1.111xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 370 avg 3 books
84 IN
COL vs NYYCam Schlittler · slot 2
8.3%Valinor 17.4%market -9.7pp
P 12.5
F 13.2
V 8.3
4.9pp 1.034xHR pf Hitter-Friendlyweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 455 avg 3 books
85 IN
PHI vs HOUHayden Wesneski · slot 3
15.7%Valinor 26.5%market -11.8pp
P 14.4
F 13.4
V 15.7
2.2pp 1.042xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 265 avg 3 books
86
Juan Soto NYM
IN
NYM vs MIASandy Alcantara · slot 1
12.3%Valinor 23.6%market -12.0pp
P 13.3
F 13.4
V 12.3
1.1pp 0.976xHR pf Neutralweather Moderate Damageform DraftKings 310 avg 3 books

Data context

840 sample flags
Status2404roster/transaction rows
Lineups270confirmed starters
Triple0cross-domain rows

Limited-sample and rookie chips come from the daily sample flag artifact. Lineup chips use confirmed lineups when available and fall back to the saved artifact label otherwise.