Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-08 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-08
0 activated plays
Gap rows 270
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-09 Older: 2026-08-07

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bryce Harper

Play

PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 44.1
Odds / Gap +415 / +4.61%
1+ HR 24.0%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.105x

Value Rank #2

Trea Turner

Strong

PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 42.6
Odds / Gap +580 / +8.11%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.105x

Value Rank #3

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 41.6
Odds / Gap +710 / +8.70%
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.113x

Value Rank #4

Brandon Marsh

Strong

PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer

Value Score 40.0
Odds / Gap +780 / +8.74%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.105x

Value Rank #5

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom

Value Score 36.9
Odds / Gap +455 / +4.76%
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.113x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+8.91%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+8.79%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+8.79%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +8.74%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+8.74%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+8.61%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+8.61%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +8.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+8.70%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+8.70%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+8.63%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+8.11%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+8.01%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+8.01%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jesús Sánchez headshot

Jesús Sánchez
TOR vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+7.88%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+7.80%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+7.80%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ramón Urías headshot

Ramón Urías
STL vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +7.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+7.64%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+7.52%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+7.52%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nathan Lukes headshot

Nathan Lukes
TOR vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +960 / U -1590
+7.16%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +945 / U --
+7.02%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +940 / U -1680
+6.97%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+6.64%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+6.55%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.55%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Shohei Ohtani headshot

Shohei Ohtani
LAD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.05%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 21.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +230 / U -270
+6.05%
29.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +240 / U -295
+4.34%
28.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +235 / U --
-8.87%
29.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+6.00%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+6.00%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+5.92%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.00%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +865 / U -1360
+6.00%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +855 / U --
+5.89%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +850 / U -1435
+5.83%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+5.85%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+5.85%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.85%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +5.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+5.75%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+5.64%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+5.64%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.73%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+5.73%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+5.73%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.73%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+5.22%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+5.12%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+5.06%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.7
Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.06%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 23.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +215 / U -255
+5.06%
30.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -280
+3.21%
29.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-8.14%
31.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs COL | Kyle Freeland | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.94%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+4.94%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+4.85%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+4.85%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+4.77%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+4.63%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.63%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+4.76%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+4.43%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+4.43%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+4.62%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+4.55%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+4.55%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+4.61%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+4.42%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+4.23%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Freddie Freeman headshot

Freddie Freeman
LAD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +4.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+4.50%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+4.36%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -640
+4.22%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.48%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+4.48%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+4.37%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+4.37%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.38%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+4.38%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+3.39%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-7.67%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +4.21%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+4.21%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+4.08%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+3.94%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.20%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.08%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.08%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+4.08%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.77%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.77%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +4.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+4.07%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+3.75%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+3.75%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1130 / U -2055
+3.98%
7.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1100 / U --
+3.78%
8.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1090 / U -2165
+3.71%
8.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 105.2
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs MIN | Taj Bradley | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.88%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -665
+3.88%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+3.73%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+3.73%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+3.64%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+3.49%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+3.44%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+3.56%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+3.42%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+3.28%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.36%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+3.36%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.36%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Santana headshot

Carlos Santana
AZ vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +610 / U -890
+3.27%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +605 / U -840
+3.17%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+3.17%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.7
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.15%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.06%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.06%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daulton Varsho headshot

Daulton Varsho
TOR vs PHI | Aaron Nola | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.04%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+2.89%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+2.73%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Mookie Betts headshot

Mookie Betts
LAD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.03%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+3.03%
15.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.90%
16.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -690
+2.77%
15.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+2.82%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+2.74%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+2.74%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +2.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+2.80%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+2.64%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+2.56%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.4
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs SD | Michael King | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.75%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+2.75%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+2.68%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+2.68%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.64%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+2.64%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+2.52%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+2.52%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.62%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+2.62%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+2.50%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+2.50%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.52%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+2.52%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+1.39%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-5.78%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +2.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+2.50%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+2.40%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+2.40%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +2.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+2.47%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+2.47%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+2.47%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+2.46%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+2.30%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+2.30%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.41%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.41%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs SD | Michael King | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+2.36%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+2.29%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+2.29%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Geraldo Perdomo headshot

Geraldo Perdomo
AZ vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +935 / U -1520
+2.20%
9.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +920 / U --
+2.06%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +915 / U -1605
+2.01%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.15%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+2.02%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.02%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 2.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.07%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.57%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-5.57%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 100.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.82%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+1.82%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+1.66%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.66%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.77%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+1.77%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+1.77%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.69%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.76%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.76%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.45%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.45%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.64%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+1.64%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+1.48%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+1.43%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.55%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.55%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.55%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.51%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+1.51%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+1.39%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+1.39%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs SD | Michael King | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+1.37%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+1.24%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+1.12%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.8
Kyle Tucker headshot

Kyle Tucker
LAD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +430 / U -570
+1.37%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
+1.19%
19.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +420 / U -535
+1.01%
18.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs SEA | George Kirby | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+0.96%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+0.96%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+0.96%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Corbin Carroll headshot

Corbin Carroll
AZ vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.74%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -610
+0.74%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.57%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.40%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
+0.72%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
+0.58%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
+0.43%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs TOR | Max Scherzer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.71%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+0.71%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
-0.63%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-3.93%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.63%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.63%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.63%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.63%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.9
Teoscar Hernández headshot

Teoscar Hernández
LAD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+0.57%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+0.40%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -570
+0.23%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+0.47%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
-0.41%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-3.82%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.47%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.16%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.16%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -390
+0.46%
23.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -420
-0.72%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +325 / U --
-3.58%
23.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -630
+0.33%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
+0.17%
17.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+0.01%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.32%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+0.32%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.01%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.01%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs SD | Michael King | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+0.16%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+0.03%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+0.03%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +390 / U -495
+0.14%
19.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-0.80%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-3.53%
20.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs CHC | Clay Holmes | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
-0.08%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
-0.24%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
-0.40%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
-0.11%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
-0.28%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
-0.46%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-0.33%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-0.48%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-0.63%
16.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-0.34%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-0.47%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-0.47%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs KC | Seth Lugo | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.35%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.35%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.35%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.35%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.1
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs CLE | Gavin Williams | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.41%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.41%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.41%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.41%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.3
Ketel Marte headshot

Ketel Marte
AZ vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.44%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.33%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.91%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs DET | Jackson Jobe | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.44%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-0.65%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.87%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs SD | Michael King | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.49%
20.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.50%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-2.80%
20.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
-0.75%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
-0.92%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
-1.09%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs SD | Michael King | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.87%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
-0.87%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
-1.03%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
-1.20%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.99%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-0.99%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.13%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-1.27%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs MIA | Sandy Alcantara | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.11%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.11%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-2.05%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.25%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.15%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-2.03%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-2.21%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs STL | Matthew Liberatore | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.27%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-1.27%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.46%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-1.65%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-1.34%
22.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-1.52%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-2.04%
23.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Max Muncy headshot

Max Muncy
LAD vs AZ | Brandon Pfaadt | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap -1.42%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
-1.42%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -565
-1.76%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-1.94%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs BAL | Kyle Bradish | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.44%
22.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.55%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.80%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 463
Latest Date 2026-09-07
Latest Signals 3
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%