Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-02 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-09-02
0 activated plays
Gap rows 276
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-09-03 Older: 2026-09-01

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-03 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28 2026-08-27

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Tj Friedl

Strong

CIN vs SD | Casey Mize

Value Score 53.8
Odds / Gap +655 / +10.23%
1+ HR 23.5%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.282x

Value Rank #2

Elly De La Cruz

Strong

CIN vs SD | Casey Mize

Value Score 50.6
Odds / Gap +540 / +8.71%
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.282x

Value Rank #3

Adley Rutschman

Strong

BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 47.1
Odds / Gap +710 / +9.50%
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.110x

Value Rank #4

Gunnar Henderson

Play

BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano

Value Score 46.8
Odds / Gap +455 / +6.20%
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.110x

Value Rank #5

Andrew Benintendi

Strong

CWS vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski

Value Score 37.3
Odds / Gap +640 / +7.76%
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.042x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Tj Friedl headshot

Tj Friedl
CIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +10.23%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+10.23%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+10.23%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+10.15%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.1
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 5
Strong
Best Gap +9.50%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+9.50%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +710 / U -1095
+9.50%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+9.43%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Elly De La Cruz headshot

Elly De La Cruz
CIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+8.71%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+8.58%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+8.46%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+7.76%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+7.76%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+7.76%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.55%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+7.55%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+7.55%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+7.55%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Steer headshot

Spencer Steer
CIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 4
Strong
Best Gap +7.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+7.54%
13.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +600 / U -875
+7.54%
13.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +595 / U --
+7.44%
14.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jj Bleday headshot

Jj Bleday
CIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +650 / U -970
+6.77%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +645 / U -910
+6.68%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +645 / U --
+6.68%
13.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +590 / U -850
+6.71%
13.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +585 / U -800
+6.60%
14.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +585 / U --
+6.60%
14.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +6.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1150
+6.61%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+6.54%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+6.54%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler Stephenson headshot

Tyler Stephenson
CIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.61%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +685 / U -980
+6.61%
12.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +680 / U -1040
+6.53%
12.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +680 / U --
+6.53%
12.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ezequiel Tovar headshot

Ezequiel Tovar
COL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.54%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+6.54%
12.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +640 / U -905
+6.45%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.45%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.4
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+6.41%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+6.26%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+6.21%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.20%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 24.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -610
+6.20%
17.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -570
+5.87%
17.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+5.87%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jordan Beck headshot

Jordan Beck
COL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +6.15%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +870 / U -1375
+6.15%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1455
+6.04%
10.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +860 / U --
+6.04%
10.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.5
Luis García Jr. headshot

Luis García Jr.
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +675 / U -965
+6.07%
12.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +675 / U -1025
+6.07%
12.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+5.98%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willi Castro headshot

Willi Castro
COL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +875 / U -1380
+6.01%
9.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +865 / U --
+5.91%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +860 / U -1460
+5.85%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.4
Brenton Doyle headshot

Brenton Doyle
COL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.96%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -985
+5.96%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +655 / U --
+5.96%
13.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daniel Schneemann headshot

Daniel Schneemann
CLE vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.82%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +810 / U -1230
+5.82%
10.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +800 / U -1305
+5.70%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +800 / U --
+5.70%
11.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs WSH | Brad Lord | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+5.80%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+5.80%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+5.71%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colt Keith headshot

Colt Keith
DET vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1260
+5.77%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1335
+5.65%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+5.65%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
William Contreras headshot

William Contreras
MIL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +645 / U -905
+5.46%
13.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +645 / U -960
+5.46%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+5.37%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.37%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+5.37%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+5.37%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+5.29%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +5.27%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+5.27%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+5.20%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+5.20%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.26%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +880 / U -1395
+5.26%
9.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +870 / U --
+5.15%
10.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +865 / U -1475
+5.10%
10.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.6
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -775
+5.17%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -725
+5.05%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+5.05%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan O'Hearn headshot

Ryan O'Hearn
PIT vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +4.97%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -895
+4.97%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+4.97%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+4.87%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.83%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+4.83%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+4.71%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+4.71%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +4.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+4.80%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+4.73%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+4.73%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Agustín Ramírez headshot

Agustín Ramírez
MIA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.78%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -800
+4.78%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+4.66%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+4.66%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.70%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+4.61%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.61%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Spencer Horwitz headshot

Spencer Horwitz
PIT vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.59%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +755 / U -1115
+4.59%
11.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +750 / U -1185
+4.53%
11.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +745 / U --
+4.46%
11.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bo Naylor headshot

Bo Naylor
CLE vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +4.51%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+4.51%
13.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +620 / U -915
+4.51%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+4.51%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs WSH | Brad Lord | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.41%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.41%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.32%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.32%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Zach McKinstry headshot

Zach McKinstry
DET vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.28%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1715
+4.28%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+4.12%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1810
+4.07%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.6
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.19%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.19%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.19%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.19%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Heriberto Hernández headshot

Heriberto Hernández
MIA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +4.11%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+4.11%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1080
+4.03%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+4.03%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Josh Jung headshot

Josh Jung
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +4.10%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +665 / U -945
+4.10%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +665 / U -1005
+4.10%
12.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +665 / U --
+4.10%
13.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -890
+3.99%
13.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +635 / U -945
+3.99%
13.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +635 / U --
+3.99%
13.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. headshot

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+3.85%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+3.70%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+3.54%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+3.80%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+3.80%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+3.80%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+3.77%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+3.61%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.61%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.77%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.77%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.46%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.46%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.76%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+3.76%
17.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+3.60%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+3.60%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jakob Marsee headshot

Jakob Marsee
MIA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +930 / U -1510
+3.67%
9.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +915 / U --
+3.53%
9.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +910 / U -1595
+3.48%
9.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +545 / U -770
+3.33%
14.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +540 / U -720
+3.21%
15.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +540 / U --
+3.21%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.17%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +560 / U -795
+3.17%
14.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +555 / U -750
+3.05%
14.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +555 / U --
+3.05%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
George Springer headshot

George Springer
TOR vs CLE | Joey Cantillo | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.07%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +450 / U -605
+3.07%
17.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +445 / U --
+2.90%
18.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +440 / U -565
+2.73%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Steven Kwan headshot

Steven Kwan
CLE vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 11.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1720
+2.90%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.74%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +985 / U -1815
+2.69%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.72%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+2.72%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+2.59%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+2.47%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.70%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+2.70%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+2.70%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+2.70%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Tena headshot

José Tena
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.67%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 10.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.67%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.67%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.67%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs ATL | Grant Holmes | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +2.63%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+2.63%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+2.33%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+2.33%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brice Turang headshot

Brice Turang
MIL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +2.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1010 / U -1710
+2.43%
8.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +990 / U --
+2.27%
9.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +980 / U -1805
+2.18%
8.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.3
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+2.34%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+2.22%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+2.22%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs MIA | Eury Pérez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.78%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.78%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.62%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.46%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Yelich headshot

Christian Yelich
MIL vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.68%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.55%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.55%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs WSH | Brad Lord | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+1.66%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.53%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.40%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yoán Moncada headshot

Yoán Moncada
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.62%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -975
+1.62%
12.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +650 / U -920
+1.54%
12.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+1.54%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jo Adell headshot

Jo Adell
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.58%
19.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+0.70%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
-4.93%
19.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs WSH | Brad Lord | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.57%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+1.57%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.43%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.43%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Riley Greene headshot

Riley Greene
DET vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.47%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +445 / U -600
+1.47%
17.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +440 / U --
+1.30%
18.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +435 / U -560
+1.13%
18.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.43%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+1.12%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+1.12%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +1.38%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+1.38%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+1.25%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+1.25%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Ramírez headshot

José Ramírez
CLE vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -520
+1.37%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
+1.16%
20.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +385 / U -485
+0.95%
19.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Eugenio Suárez headshot

Eugenio Suárez
CIN vs SD | Casey Mize | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.22%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+1.22%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.76%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
+0.52%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.15%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.15%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.15%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs SEA | Bryce Miller | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+1.13%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+1.00%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+1.00%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.94%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.94%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.94%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.94%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.2
Spencer Torkelson headshot

Spencer Torkelson
DET vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.91%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
+0.91%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+0.77%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
+0.63%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs HOU | Hayden Wesneski | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.75%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+0.75%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
-0.38%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-4.01%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Manzardo headshot

Kyle Manzardo
CLE vs TOR | Dylan Cease | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -650
+0.56%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +470 / U --
+0.41%
17.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -610
+0.25%
17.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nolan Schanuel headshot

Nolan Schanuel
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1035 / U -1785
+0.56%
8.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1015 / U --
+0.40%
9.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1005 / U -1885
+0.32%
8.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.4
Michael Busch headshot

Michael Busch
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.49%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.49%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.32%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -550
+0.14%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.44%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+0.44%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+0.28%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+0.11%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Trout headshot

Mike Trout
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.33%
18.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +425 / U -570
-0.61%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
-3.69%
19.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Xavier Edwards headshot

Xavier Edwards
MIA vs KC | Noah Cameron | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.16%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 4.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.16%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.34%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-3.66%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 102.9
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs WSH | Brad Lord | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.00%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.00%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
-0.37%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-0.37%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs WSH | Brad Lord | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-0.08%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-0.54%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.78%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs COL | Tomoyuki Sugano | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.20%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +345 / U -440
-0.20%
21.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +335 / U --
-0.72%
23.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +330 / U -410
-0.99%
22.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.56%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.56%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.56%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.56%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.2
Zach Neto headshot

Zach Neto
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.72%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +490 / U -670
-0.72%
16.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +485 / U --
-0.86%
17.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -630
-1.01%
16.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.73%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.73%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.73%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.73%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 104.2
Brandon Lowe headshot

Brandon Lowe
PIT vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -485
-0.96%
19.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +395 / U -520
-1.92%
19.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-2.36%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 5.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.97%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.47%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-2.53%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.9
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs SF | Landen Roupp | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.97%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
-0.97%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +380 / U -495
-1.86%
20.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-2.38%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.09%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-1.09%
21.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +370 / U -475
-1.84%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
-2.30%
21.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kerry Carpenter headshot

Kerry Carpenter
DET vs MIN | Dean Kremer | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.14%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -530
-1.14%
19.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +395 / U --
-1.34%
20.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -495
-1.55%
19.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs CWS | Davis Martin | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.21%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
-1.21%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
-1.42%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-1.64%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs ATH | Jacob Lopez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +400 / U -525
-1.30%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +390 / U -490
-1.71%
19.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +390 / U --
-1.71%
20.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Hunter Goodman headshot

Hunter Goodman
COL vs BAL | Trevor Rogers | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.33%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -560
-1.33%
18.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
-1.52%
19.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +410 / U -525
-1.71%
18.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Logan O'Hoppe headshot

Logan O'Hoppe
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
-1.55%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -695
-1.68%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
-1.68%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jorge Soler headshot

Jorge Soler
LAA vs NYY | Cam Schlittler | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.58%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
-1.58%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
-1.62%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
-1.73%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 459
Latest Date 2026-09-03
Latest Signals 4
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-30
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 312 matched
0 unmatched
 36 / 66 / 93
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Jarren Duran | 50.4
 --
Signals --
2026-08-29
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 237 matched
18 unmatched
 6 / 44 / 46
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Freddie Freeman | 40.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-28
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 243 matched
0 unmatched
 6 / 35 / 69
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 36.0
 --
Signals --
2026-08-27
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 129 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 8 / 25
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Ezequiel Tovar | 45.5
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%