Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-09-04 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-09-04

0 activated plays

Gap rows 303

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Older: 2026-09-03

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31 2026-08-30 2026-08-29 2026-08-28

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Bobby Witt Jr.

Play

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon

Value Score 34.3

Odds / Gap +470 / +4.75%

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.100x

Value Rank #2

Vinnie Pasquantino

Play

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon

Value Score 33.4

Odds / Gap +475 / +4.73%

1+ HR 22.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.100x

Value Rank #3

Yandy Díaz

Play

TB vs TEX | Trevor Williams

Value Score 29.8

Odds / Gap +575 / +6.19%

1+ HR 21.0%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.106x

Value Rank #4

Brandon Nimmo

Play

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez

Value Score 28.1

Odds / Gap +515 / +4.88%

1+ HR 21.1%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.106x

Value Rank #5

Corbin Carroll

Lean

AZ vs HOU | Cristian Javier

Value Score 26.0

Odds / Gap +450 / +3.05%

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.077x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge

NYY vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +8.12%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+8.12%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+6.41%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-10.94%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jonathan India

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon | Slot 6

Strong

Best Gap +7.71%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +920 / U -1485

+7.71%

9.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +905 / U --

+7.56%

10.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +900 / U -1570

+7.51%

9.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jarren Duran

BOS vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1

Strong

Best Gap +7.55%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +715 / U -1045

+7.55%

11.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +715 / U -1110

+7.55%

11.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +715 / U --

+7.55%

12.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Kurtz

ATH vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +6.33%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +265 / U -320

+6.33%

26.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +280 / U -345

+4.99%

25.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +270 / U --

-9.55%

27.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Carlos Correa

HOU vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +6.29%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +770 / U -1155

+6.29%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1220

+6.22%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+6.22%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yandy Díaz

TB vs TEX | Trevor Williams | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +6.19%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+6.19%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+6.07%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+6.07%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jonathan Aranda

TB vs TEX | Trevor Williams | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +6.04%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +655 / U -925

+6.04%

12.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +655 / U -980

+6.04%

12.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +650 / U --

+5.96%

13.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jeremy Peña

HOU vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.99%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +765 / U -1145

+5.99%

11.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +760 / U -1215

+5.92%

11.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +760 / U --

+5.92%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Daniel Schneemann

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.93%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +810 / U -1230

+5.93%

10.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +800 / U -1305

+5.81%

10.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +800 / U --

+5.81%

11.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Willi Castro

COL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +5.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +885 / U -1400

+5.85%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +870 / U -1480

+5.69%

9.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +870 / U --

+5.69%

10.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.7

Adley Rutschman

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.63%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +710 / U -1030

+5.63%

11.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1090

+5.56%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +705 / U --

+5.56%

12.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Edouard Julien

COL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.62%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +790 / U -1195

+5.62%

10.9%

FanDuel

0.5

O +785 / U -1270

+5.56%

10.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +785 / U --

+5.56%

11.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ryan Mountcastle

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 7

Play

Best Gap +5.61%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

+5.61%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

+5.49%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

+5.49%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Carlos Santana

AZ vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.57%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +610 / U -890

+5.57%

13.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +605 / U -840

+5.47%

13.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+5.47%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.5

Alec Burleson

STL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.46%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -870

+5.46%

13.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +625 / U -925

+5.46%

13.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +625 / U --

+5.46%

13.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Ezequiel Tovar

COL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +5.45%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -950

+5.45%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1010

+5.45%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +665 / U --

+5.37%

13.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 107.9

Roman Anthony

BOS vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2

Play

Best Gap +5.37%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +700 / U -1010

+5.37%

12.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1070

+5.37%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +695 / U --

+5.29%

12.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cedric Mullins

TB vs TEX | Trevor Williams | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.36%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -835

+5.36%

13.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+5.36%

13.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +605 / U --

+5.36%

14.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Kyle Schwarber

PHI vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.32%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 17.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +280 / U -335

+5.32%

25.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +290 / U -365

+3.84%

24.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +285 / U --

-8.30%

26.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Alec Bohm

PHI vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.31%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +775 / U -1155

+5.31%

11.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +765 / U -1225

+5.18%

11.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +765 / U --

+5.18%

11.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Geraldo Perdomo

AZ vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +5.30%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +935 / U -1520

+5.30%

9.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +920 / U --

+5.16%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +915 / U -1605

+5.11%

9.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4

Evan Carter

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 6

Play

Best Gap +5.20%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +780 / U -1175

+5.20%

11.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +775 / U -1245

+5.13%

11.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +775 / U --

+5.13%

11.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9

Lane Thomas

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +5.01%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+5.01%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+5.01%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+5.01%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wyatt Langford

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.99%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +570 / U -815

+4.99%

14.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +565 / U -765

+4.88%

14.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +565 / U --

+4.88%

15.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brandon Nimmo

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +4.88%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +515 / U -715

+4.88%

15.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +510 / U --

+4.75%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +505 / U -670

+4.61%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Brenton Doyle

COL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 5

Play

Best Gap +4.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1015

+4.85%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

+4.77%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+4.77%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Trea Turner

PHI vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.85%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+4.85%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -745

+4.74%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+4.74%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon | Slot 1

Play

Best Gap +4.75%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+4.75%

16.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -600

+4.59%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+4.59%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Vinnie Pasquantino

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +4.73%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 22.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+4.73%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+4.42%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+4.42%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Andrew Benintendi

CWS vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 4

Play

Best Gap +4.71%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +640 / U -900

+4.71%

13.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +640 / U -955

+4.71%

13.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+4.71%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bo Naylor

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +4.43%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+4.43%

13.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +620 / U -915

+4.43%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+4.43%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +4.27%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+4.27%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+4.27%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+4.18%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Agustín Ramírez

MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.74%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -800

+3.74%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

+3.62%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

+3.62%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Colson Montgomery

CWS vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.45%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 16.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +325 / U -400

+3.45%

22.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +335 / U -430

+2.32%

22.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +330 / U --

-6.71%

23.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jose Altuve

HOU vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 3

Lean

Best Gap +3.45%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 19.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +540 / U -760

+3.45%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

+3.32%

15.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -710

+3.20%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 108.6

Jakob Marsee

MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.28%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 13.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +930 / U -1510

+3.28%

9.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +915 / U --

+3.14%

9.8%

FanDuel

0.5

O +910 / U -1595

+3.09%

9.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Iván Herrera

STL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +3.23%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +670 / U -955

+3.23%

12.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +670 / U -1015

+3.23%

12.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +670 / U --

+3.23%

13.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Heriberto Hernández

MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 6

Lean

Best Gap +3.22%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+3.22%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +700 / U -1080

+3.14%

12.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+3.14%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.16%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +345 / U -430

+3.16%

21.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -460

+2.15%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +350 / U --

-6.51%

22.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Joc Pederson

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.13%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +580 / U -830

+3.13%

14.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +575 / U -780

+3.03%

14.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +575 / U --

+3.03%

14.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Corbin Carroll

AZ vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 1

Lean

Best Gap +3.05%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 21.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +450 / U -610

+3.05%

17.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +445 / U --

+2.88%

18.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +440 / U -570

+2.71%

17.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Steven Kwan

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.90%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 11.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1720

+2.90%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+2.74%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +985 / U -1815

+2.69%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 105.1

Salvador Perez

KC vs TOR | Jameson Taillon | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.69%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +460 / U -625

+2.69%

17.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

+2.53%

18.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +450 / U -585

+2.37%

17.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ian Happ

CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +2.62%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+2.62%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+2.50%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+2.50%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Jahmai Jones

DET vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 2

Lean

Best Gap +2.52%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 16.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +605 / U -885

+2.52%

13.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +600 / U -830

+2.41%

13.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +600 / U --

+2.41%

14.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Victor Scott II

STL vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.39%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+2.39%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+2.39%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+2.39%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 106.9

Willson Contreras

BOS vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.37%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -750

+2.37%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +530 / U -705

+2.25%

15.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +530 / U --

+2.25%

15.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Spencer Torkelson

DET vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.31%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -645

+2.31%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+2.00%

17.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+2.00%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Byron Buxton

MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.08%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +370 / U -465

+2.08%

20.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

+1.05%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-5.43%

21.1%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Dansby Swanson

CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +2.07%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +635 / U -890

+2.07%

13.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +635 / U -945

+2.07%

13.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +635 / U --

+2.07%

13.6%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Isaac Paredes

HOU vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +2.07%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +530 / U -745

+2.07%

15.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +525 / U -700

+1.94%

15.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +525 / U --

+1.94%

16.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Trevor Larnach

MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 7

No Play

Best Gap +1.90%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +705 / U -1020

+1.90%

12.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +705 / U -1085

+1.90%

11.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +700 / U --

+1.82%

12.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Edgar Quero

CWS vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +1.68%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+1.68%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+1.68%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

+1.68%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Josh Bell

MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.64%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +550 / U -780

+1.64%

14.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +545 / U -730

+1.52%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +545 / U --

+1.52%

15.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nick Castellanos

SD vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.64%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

+1.64%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -740

+1.53%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

+1.53%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Shea Langeliers

ATH vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.49%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

+1.49%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +390 / U -505

+0.48%

19.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-4.78%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Riley Greene

DET vs CLE | Logan Allen | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+1.48%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+1.18%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+1.18%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +1.45%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+1.45%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+1.29%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+1.13%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Gunnar Henderson

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -660

+1.35%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +475 / U -620

+1.05%

16.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +475 / U --

+1.05%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

José Ramírez

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -520

+1.23%

19.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +390 / U --

+1.02%

20.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +385 / U -485

+0.81%

19.9%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Walker

HOU vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.19%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -615

+1.19%

17.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +450 / U --

+1.03%

18.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +445 / U -575

+0.86%

17.7%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Wilyer Abreu

BOS vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +1.17%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+1.17%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+1.04%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+1.04%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Alex Bregman

CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +1.16%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.3%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -795

+1.16%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

+1.04%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

+1.04%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Cj Abrams

WSH vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +1.06%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +625 / U -915

+1.06%

13.3%

DraftKings

0.5

O +620 / U -860

+0.96%

13.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +620 / U --

+0.96%

13.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Junior Caminero

TB vs TEX | Trevor Williams | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.88%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -435

+0.88%

21.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -465

-0.11%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +355 / U --

-4.17%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Adolis García

PHI vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.87%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+0.87%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+0.70%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

+0.52%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Lawrence Butler

ATH vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.85%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +545 / U -775

+0.85%

14.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +540 / U -725

+0.73%

15.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +540 / U --

+0.73%

15.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.84%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

+0.84%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+0.69%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

+0.53%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Keibert Ruiz

WSH vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.79%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +900 / U -1440

+0.79%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+0.69%

10.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +885 / U -1525

+0.64%

9.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 106.8

Pete Alonso

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.77%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +315 / U -385

+0.77%

23.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +330 / U -415

-0.43%

22.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +320 / U --

-3.96%

23.8%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Tyler Soderstrom

ATH vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap +0.76%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +585 / U -845

+0.76%

14.0%

DraftKings

0.5

O +580 / U -795

+0.65%

14.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +580 / U --

+0.65%

14.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Taylor Ward

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.70%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 19.2%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +440 / U -590

+0.70%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

+0.53%

18.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +430 / U -555

+0.35%

18.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Chandler Simpson

TB vs TEX | Trevor Williams | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 3.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.63%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

+0.13%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-4.13%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 99.3

Matt Wallner

MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.52%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +395 / U -500

+0.52%

19.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +405 / U -535

-0.40%

19.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-3.85%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Kyle Manzardo

CLE vs DET | Keider Montero | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.46%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

+0.46%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

+0.31%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -610

+0.15%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jacob Wilson

ATH vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap +0.40%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1005 / U -1700

+0.40%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +985 / U --

+0.23%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +980 / U -1795

+0.19%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.4

Brent Rooker

ATH vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.29%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +360 / U -450

+0.29%

21.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +370 / U -480

-0.65%

20.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +365 / U --

-3.62%

21.5%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Daylen Lile

WSH vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.26%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +830 / U -1280

+0.26%

10.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +820 / U -1355

+0.14%

10.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +820 / U --

+0.14%

10.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Xavier Edwards

MIA vs CHC | Shota Imanaga | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.12%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 4.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

+0.12%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-0.38%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-3.62%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.0

Miguel Andujar

SD vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -0.07%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 9.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +965 / U -1600

-0.07%

9.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +950 / U --

-0.20%

9.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +945 / U -1690

-0.25%

9.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 107.8

Jackson Merrill

SD vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -0.23%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.9%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +560 / U -800

-0.23%

14.6%

DraftKings

0.5

O +555 / U -750

-0.35%

14.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +555 / U --

-0.35%

15.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Bryce Harper

PHI vs ATL | Chris Sale | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.33%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +435 / U -580

-0.33%

18.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

-0.51%

18.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +425 / U -540

-0.69%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ketel Marte

AZ vs HOU | Cristian Javier | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.35%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +380 / U -495

-0.35%

20.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +375 / U --

-0.57%

21.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +370 / U -465

-0.80%

20.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Yordan Alvarez

HOU vs AZ | Merrill Kelly | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.48%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 20.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +385 / U -505

-0.48%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-0.69%

20.8%

DraftKings

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-0.91%

20.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ramón Laureano

SD vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -0.53%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +555 / U -790

-0.53%

14.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +550 / U -740

-0.64%

14.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +550 / U --

-0.64%

15.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Manny Machado

SD vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.54%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +405 / U -515

-0.54%

19.1%

FanDuel

0.5

O +415 / U -550

-1.42%

18.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +410 / U --

-2.81%

19.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.71%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +465 / U -630

-0.71%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +460 / U --

-0.87%

17.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +455 / U -590

-1.03%

17.4%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.75%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.3%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

-0.75%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-1.62%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-2.54%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

James Wood

WSH vs LAD | Blake Snell | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.80%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +505 / U -695

-0.80%

15.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +500 / U --

-0.94%

16.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +495 / U -655

-1.08%

16.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.85%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.8%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-0.85%

18.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-1.24%

19.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-1.24%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Corey Seager

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.86%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 21.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +350 / U -450

-0.86%

21.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +345 / U --

-1.11%

22.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +340 / U -420

-1.37%

22.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Luke Keaschall

MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -0.86%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 10.0%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +820 / U -1255

-0.86%

10.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +810 / U -1330

-0.98%

10.6%

BetMGM

0.5

O +810 / U --

-0.98%

11.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 106.7

Ben Rice

NYY vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.12%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.0%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -730

-1.12%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -685

-1.25%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

-1.25%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Hunter Goodman

COL vs STL | Andre Pallante | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -1.21%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 15.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +455 / U -585

-1.21%

17.4%

FanDuel

0.5

O +465 / U -625

-1.89%

17.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +455 / U --

-2.21%

18.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Chase Meidroth

CWS vs MIN | Zebby Matthews | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.6%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.36%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.36%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.36%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.5

Jake Burger

TEX vs TB | Nick Martinez | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap -1.42%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +425 / U -570

-1.42%

18.3%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-1.60%

19.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +415 / U -530

-1.76%

18.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Royce Lewis

MIN vs CWS | Erick Fedde | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.44%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 13.7%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +535 / U -715

-1.44%

15.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +540 / U -760

-1.91%

15.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +535 / U --

-2.04%

15.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 109.8

Tyler O'Neill

BAL vs BOS | Ranger Suarez | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.45%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -575

-1.45%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +425 / U --

-1.63%

19.1%

DraftKings

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-1.67%

18.6%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.50%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.2%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-1.50%

18.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +430 / U -570

-1.62%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-1.98%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Michael Busch

CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap -1.54%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +430 / U -550

-1.54%

18.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +440 / U -590

-1.60%

17.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +435 / U --

-1.77%

18.7%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0

Nico Hoerner

CHC vs MIA | Janson Junk | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.63%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 6.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1150 / U -2120

-1.63%

7.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +1150 / U -2400

-1.87%

7.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +1150 / U --

-1.87%

8.0%

Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 103.5

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 460

Latest Date 2026-09-04

Latest Signals 5

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-09-04 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	303 matched 0 unmatched	7 / 77 / 41 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Bobby Witt Jr. \| 34.3	-- Signals --
2026-09-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	126 matched 0 unmatched	3 / 34 / 32 Strong / Play / Lean	4 Jarren Duran \| 39.1	-- Signals --
2026-09-02 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	276 matched 0 unmatched	18 / 77 / 58 Strong / Play / Lean	5 TJ Friedl \| 53.8	-- Signals --
2026-09-01 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	273 matched 0 unmatched	28 / 51 / 81 Strong / Play / Lean	5 CJ Abrams \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-31 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	213 matched 0 unmatched	13 / 74 / 57 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 43.6	-- Signals --
2026-08-30 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	312 matched 0 unmatched	36 / 66 / 93 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Jarren Duran \| 50.4	-- Signals --
2026-08-29 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	237 matched 18 unmatched	6 / 44 / 46 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Freddie Freeman \| 40.0	-- Signals --
2026-08-28 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	243 matched 0 unmatched	6 / 35 / 69 Strong / Play / Lean	5 Adley Rutschman \| 36.0	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%