Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
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Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-08-01 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON
Current slate 2026-08-01
0 activated plays
Gap rows 264
Unique hitters 0
Avg gap --
Avg odds --
Newer: 2026-08-02 Older: 2026-07-31

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0
Average Gap --
Unique Hitters 0
Average Odds --
2026-09-07 2026-09-06 2026-09-05 2026-09-04 2026-09-03 2026-09-02 2026-09-01 2026-08-31

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

Value Rank #1

Brandon Nimmo

Strong

TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco

Value Score 45.1
Odds / Gap +515 / +7.36%
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.145x

Value Rank #2

Wyatt Langford

Strong

TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco

Value Score 40.2
Odds / Gap +570 / +7.65%
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.145x

Value Rank #3

Bryan Reynolds

Play

PIT vs CIN | Andrew Abbott

Value Score 31.0
Odds / Gap +615 / +6.71%
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.095x

Value Rank #4

Bobby Witt Jr.

Lean

KC vs COL | Ryan Feltner

Value Score 29.3
Odds / Gap +470 / +4.01%
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Projected | Projected Hitter-Friendly | HR 1.122x

Value Rank #5

Andrew Benintendi

Play

CWS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen

Value Score 29.1
Odds / Gap +640 / +6.57%
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Projected | Projected Neutral | HR 1.096x

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge headshot

Aaron Judge
NYY vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 2
Strong
Best Gap +10.91%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +215 / U -255
+10.91%
30.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +230 / U -280
+9.06%
29.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +220 / U --
-13.99%
31.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Jeremy Peña headshot

Jeremy Peña
HOU vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +8.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +765 / U -1145
+8.08%
11.2%
FanDuel
0.5
O +760 / U -1215
+8.01%
11.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +760 / U --
+8.01%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Carlos Correa headshot

Carlos Correa
HOU vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +770 / U -1155
+7.69%
11.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +765 / U -1220
+7.62%
11.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +765 / U --
+7.62%
11.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Wyatt Langford headshot

Wyatt Langford
TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 1
Strong
Best Gap +7.65%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 22.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +570 / U -815
+7.65%
14.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +565 / U -765
+7.54%
14.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +565 / U --
+7.54%
15.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Nimmo headshot

Brandon Nimmo
TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 3
Strong
Best Gap +7.36%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 23.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +515 / U -715
+7.36%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +510 / U --
+7.23%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +505 / U -670
+7.09%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Evan Carter headshot

Evan Carter
TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 6
Strong
Best Gap +7.16%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1175
+7.16%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +775 / U -1245
+7.09%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +775 / U --
+7.09%
11.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan India headshot

Jonathan India
KC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +920 / U -1485
+6.90%
9.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +905 / U --
+6.75%
10.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +900 / U -1570
+6.70%
9.6%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bryan Reynolds headshot

Bryan Reynolds
PIT vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.71%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+6.71%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -850
+6.62%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.62%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Andrew Benintendi headshot

Andrew Benintendi
CWS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +6.57%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +640 / U -900
+6.57%
13.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +640 / U -955
+6.57%
13.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +640 / U --
+6.57%
13.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Keibert Ruiz headshot

Keibert Ruiz
WSH vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.47%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +900 / U -1440
+6.47%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+6.37%
10.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +885 / U -1525
+6.32%
9.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Brandon Marsh headshot

Brandon Marsh
PHI vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +6.44%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +780 / U -1170
+6.44%
11.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +770 / U -1240
+6.31%
11.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +770 / U --
+6.31%
11.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ozzie Albies headshot

Ozzie Albies
ATL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +6.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -850
+6.25%
13.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +615 / U -905
+6.25%
13.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+6.16%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cj Abrams headshot

Cj Abrams
WSH vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +6.22%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -915
+6.22%
13.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +620 / U -860
+6.12%
13.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +620 / U --
+6.12%
13.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Bohm headshot

Alec Bohm
PHI vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.99%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +805 / U -1225
+5.99%
10.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +795 / U -1295
+5.87%
10.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +795 / U --
+5.87%
11.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Giancarlo Stanton headshot

Giancarlo Stanton
NYY vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 4
Play
Best Gap +5.59%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 14.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +320 / U -390
+5.59%
23.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -420
+4.41%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +325 / U --
-8.71%
23.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Daylen Lile headshot

Daylen Lile
WSH vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.34%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+5.34%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+5.22%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+5.22%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.5
Trea Turner headshot

Trea Turner
PHI vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.33%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -835
+5.33%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -785
+5.23%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.23%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Kurtz headshot

Nick Kurtz
ATH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 1
Play
Best Gap +5.27%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 17.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +280 / U -340
+5.27%
25.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +295 / U -365
+4.05%
24.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +285 / U --
-8.51%
26.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Joc Pederson headshot

Joc Pederson
TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +5.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +580 / U -830
+5.25%
14.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +575 / U -780
+5.15%
14.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +575 / U --
+5.15%
14.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jose Altuve headshot

Jose Altuve
HOU vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.08%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
+5.08%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
+4.95%
15.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
+4.83%
15.3%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jonathan Aranda headshot

Jonathan Aranda
TB vs CWS | Jordan Hicks | Slot 3
Play
Best Gap +5.05%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +655 / U -925
+5.05%
12.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +655 / U -980
+5.05%
12.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +650 / U --
+4.97%
13.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yandy Díaz headshot

Yandy Díaz
TB vs CWS | Jordan Hicks | Slot 2
Play
Best Gap +5.04%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+5.04%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+4.92%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+4.92%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Mike Yastrzemski headshot

Mike Yastrzemski
ATL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 6
Play
Best Gap +4.95%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +615 / U -900
+4.95%
13.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +610 / U -845
+4.86%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +610 / U --
+4.86%
14.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Adley Rutschman headshot

Adley Rutschman
BAL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 5
Play
Best Gap +4.81%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +710 / U -1030
+4.81%
11.9%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1090
+4.74%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +705 / U --
+4.74%
12.4%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Ryan Mountcastle headshot

Ryan Mountcastle
BAL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 7
Play
Best Gap +4.68%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 15.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +830 / U -1280
+4.68%
10.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +820 / U -1355
+4.56%
10.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +820 / U --
+4.56%
10.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Cedric Mullins headshot

Cedric Mullins
TB vs CWS | Jordan Hicks | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -835
+4.25%
13.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +605 / U -885
+4.25%
13.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +605 / U --
+4.25%
14.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.6
Lane Thomas headshot

Lane Thomas
KC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +4.25%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+4.25%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+4.25%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+4.25%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Bobby Witt Jr. headshot

Bobby Witt Jr.
KC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +4.01%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +470 / U -640
+4.01%
16.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -600
+3.85%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.85%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Josh Bell headshot

Josh Bell
MIN vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.98%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.4%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+3.98%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+3.86%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+3.86%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Cronenworth headshot

Jake Cronenworth
SD vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.96%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 13.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +905 / U -1450
+3.96%
9.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +890 / U -1535
+3.81%
9.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +890 / U --
+3.81%
10.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.9
Heliot Ramos headshot

Heliot Ramos
SF vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +635 / U -940
+3.89%
13.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +630 / U -885
+3.80%
13.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +630 / U --
+3.80%
13.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Vinnie Pasquantino headshot

Vinnie Pasquantino
KC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.87%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 21.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+3.87%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+3.56%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+3.56%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Trevor Larnach headshot

Trevor Larnach
MIN vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 7
Lean
Best Gap +3.85%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +705 / U -1020
+3.85%
12.0%
FanDuel
0.5
O +705 / U -1085
+3.85%
11.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +700 / U --
+3.77%
12.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jarren Duran headshot

Jarren Duran
BOS vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 1
Lean
Best Gap +3.80%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +715 / U -1045
+3.80%
11.8%
FanDuel
0.5
O +715 / U -1110
+3.80%
11.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +715 / U --
+3.80%
12.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Isaac Paredes headshot

Isaac Paredes
HOU vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 5
Lean
Best Gap +3.69%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -745
+3.69%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +525 / U -700
+3.56%
15.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+3.56%
16.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Roman Anthony headshot

Roman Anthony
BOS vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 2
Lean
Best Gap +3.56%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 16.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +700 / U -1010
+3.56%
12.1%
FanDuel
0.5
O +700 / U -1070
+3.56%
12.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +695 / U --
+3.48%
12.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Kyle Schwarber headshot

Kyle Schwarber
PHI vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.54%
Best Side Under
1+ HR 20.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +265 / U -320
+3.54%
26.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +280 / U -345
+2.20%
25.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +270 / U --
-6.76%
27.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nick Castellanos headshot

Nick Castellanos
SD vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +3.46%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +575 / U -825
+3.46%
14.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +570 / U -775
+3.34%
14.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +570 / U --
+3.34%
14.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alec Burleson headshot

Alec Burleson
STL vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +3.40%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 17.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +625 / U -870
+3.40%
13.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +625 / U -925
+3.40%
13.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +625 / U --
+3.40%
13.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Chapman headshot

Matt Chapman
SF vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.93%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +525 / U -735
+2.93%
15.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -690
+2.80%
15.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +520 / U --
+2.80%
16.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jacob Wilson headshot

Jacob Wilson
ATH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 6
Lean
Best Gap +2.91%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 12.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +965 / U -1605
+2.91%
9.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +950 / U --
+2.78%
9.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +945 / U -1695
+2.73%
9.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 107.0
Jackson Merrill headshot

Jackson Merrill
SD vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 3
Lean
Best Gap +2.90%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
+2.90%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
+2.77%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
+2.77%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Christian Walker headshot

Christian Walker
HOU vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 4
Lean
Best Gap +2.89%
Best Side Over
1+ HR 20.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -615
+2.89%
17.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +450 / U --
+2.73%
18.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +445 / U -575
+2.56%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Edgar Quero headshot

Edgar Quero
CWS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +2.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.37%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.37%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.37%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.4
Drake Baldwin headshot

Drake Baldwin
ATL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +2.18%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +530 / U -740
+2.18%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +525 / U --
+2.05%
16.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +520 / U -695
+1.92%
15.6%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jung Hoo Lee headshot

Jung Hoo Lee
SF vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 7
No Play
Best Gap +2.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 10.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+2.15%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+2.15%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+2.15%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
James Wood headshot

James Wood
WSH vs ATL | Martín Pérez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +2.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +505 / U -695
+2.12%
15.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +500 / U --
+1.98%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +495 / U -655
+1.84%
16.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Austin Riley headshot

Austin Riley
ATL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +2.04%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -685
+2.04%
16.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +490 / U -640
+1.90%
16.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
+1.90%
17.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Salvador Perez headshot

Salvador Perez
KC vs COL | Ryan Feltner | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +460 / U -625
+1.92%
17.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.76%
18.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +450 / U -585
+1.60%
17.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Junior Caminero headshot

Junior Caminero
TB vs CWS | Jordan Hicks | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.85%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
+1.85%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.86%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-5.14%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Bryce Harper headshot

Bryce Harper
PHI vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +415 / U -550
+1.67%
18.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +410 / U --
+1.48%
19.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +405 / U -515
+1.29%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Iván Herrera headshot

Iván Herrera
STL vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.55%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +670 / U -955
+1.55%
12.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +670 / U -1015
+1.55%
12.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +670 / U --
+1.55%
13.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery
CWS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +1.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +325 / U -400
+1.46%
22.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +335 / U -430
+0.33%
22.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +330 / U --
-4.72%
23.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luis Arraez headshot

Luis Arraez
SF vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.36%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 9.4%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+1.36%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+1.36%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+1.36%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 103.9
Adolis García headshot

Adolis García
PHI vs BAL | Shane Baz | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.34%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +465 / U -625
+1.34%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +455 / U -585
+1.02%
17.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +455 / U --
+1.02%
18.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Yordan Alvarez headshot

Yordan Alvarez
HOU vs TEX | Jacob deGrom | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.30%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.9%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -505
+1.30%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+1.09%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
+0.87%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Corey Seager headshot

Corey Seager
TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 23.5%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
+1.26%
21.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
+1.01%
22.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
+0.75%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willy Adames headshot

Willy Adames
SF vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +1.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +475 / U -645
+1.26%
16.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +465 / U -605
+0.95%
17.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +465 / U --
+0.95%
17.7%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Gunnar Henderson headshot

Gunnar Henderson
BAL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +1.13%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -660
+1.13%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +475 / U -620
+0.83%
16.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +475 / U --
+0.83%
17.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Dansby Swanson headshot

Dansby Swanson
CHC vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 6
No Play
Best Gap +1.07%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +605 / U -880
+1.07%
13.6%
DraftKings
0.5
O +600 / U -825
+0.96%
13.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +600 / U --
+0.96%
14.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Pete Alonso headshot

Pete Alonso
BAL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +1.02%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +315 / U -385
+1.02%
23.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +330 / U -415
-0.18%
22.4%
BetMGM
0.5
O +320 / U --
-4.21%
23.8%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chandler Simpson headshot

Chandler Simpson
TB vs CWS | Jordan Hicks | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.96%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 3.5%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.96%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.46%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-4.46%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 100.8
Fernando Tatis Jr. headshot

Fernando Tatis Jr.
SD vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.95%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +485 / U -670
+0.95%
16.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +480 / U -625
+0.80%
16.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +480 / U --
+0.80%
17.2%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Mangum headshot

Jake Mangum
PIT vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.80%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.8%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.80%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.80%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.80%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 108.0
Ian Happ headshot

Ian Happ
CHC vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.68%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.1%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +550 / U -780
+0.68%
14.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +545 / U -730
+0.56%
15.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +545 / U --
+0.56%
15.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Ronald Acuña Jr. headshot

Ronald Acuña Jr.
ATL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.67%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -560
+0.67%
18.3%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -525
+0.30%
18.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +415 / U --
+0.30%
19.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jake Burger headshot

Jake Burger
TEX vs HOU | Ronel Blanco | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.66%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +425 / U -570
+0.66%
18.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +420 / U --
+0.48%
19.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +415 / U -530
+0.29%
18.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Willson Contreras headshot

Willson Contreras
BOS vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.59%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 16.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -750
+0.59%
15.2%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -705
+0.47%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
+0.47%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Taylor Ward headshot

Taylor Ward
BAL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap +0.52%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 19.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +440 / U -590
+0.52%
17.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +435 / U --
+0.35%
18.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +430 / U -555
+0.17%
18.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Olson headshot

Matt Olson
ATL vs WSH | Miles Mikolas | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.50%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -475
+0.50%
20.5%
BetMGM
0.5
O +360 / U --
+0.04%
21.7%
DraftKings
0.5
O +355 / U -445
-0.20%
21.2%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Luke Keaschall headshot

Luke Keaschall
MIN vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.46%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 11.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +820 / U -1255
+0.46%
10.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +810 / U -1330
+0.34%
10.6%
BetMGM
0.5
O +810 / U --
+0.34%
11.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 106.2
Marcell Ozuna headshot

Marcell Ozuna
PIT vs CIN | Andrew Abbott | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 22.2%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +360 / U -465
+0.43%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
+0.19%
22.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.05%
21.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Hitter-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Rafael Devers headshot

Rafael Devers
SF vs SD | Walker Buehler | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap +0.40%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 21.0%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +385 / U -500
+0.40%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +380 / U --
+0.19%
20.8%
DraftKings
0.5
O +375 / U -470
-0.03%
20.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. headshot

Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap +0.29%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 14.2%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +455 / U -590
+0.29%
17.4%
FanDuel
0.5
O +465 / U -630
-0.50%
17.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +460 / U --
-3.66%
17.9%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Byron Buxton headshot

Byron Buxton
MIN vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap +0.12%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.6%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +370 / U -465
+0.12%
20.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +385 / U -500
-0.91%
19.8%
BetMGM
0.5
O +375 / U --
-3.47%
21.1%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Victor Scott II headshot

Victor Scott II
STL vs TOR | Kevin Gausman | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap +0.08%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 8.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
+0.08%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
+0.08%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
+0.08%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 108.8
Royce Lewis headshot

Royce Lewis
MIN vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.05%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.6%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +540 / U -760
-0.05%
15.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +535 / U -715
-0.18%
15.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +535 / U --
-0.18%
15.8%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Alex Bregman headshot

Alex Bregman
CHC vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 5
No Play
Best Gap -0.06%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +535 / U -755
-0.06%
15.1%
DraftKings
0.5
O +530 / U -710
-0.18%
15.3%
BetMGM
0.5
O +530 / U --
-0.18%
15.9%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Shea Langeliers headshot

Shea Langeliers
ATH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -0.26%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.9%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -435
-0.26%
21.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +360 / U -465
-1.25%
20.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +355 / U --
-3.03%
22.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Manny Machado headshot

Manny Machado
SD vs SF | Tyler Mahle | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -0.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.3%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +435 / U -580
-0.37%
18.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +430 / U --
-0.55%
18.9%
DraftKings
0.5
O +425 / U -545
-0.73%
18.4%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
José Caballero headshot

José Caballero
NYY vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.43%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.7%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1130 / U -2055
-0.43%
7.9%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1100 / U --
-0.63%
8.3%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1090 / U -2165
-0.70%
8.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.9
Wilyer Abreu headshot

Wilyer Abreu
BOS vs LAD | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Slot 4
No Play
Best Gap -0.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +520 / U -725
-0.48%
15.5%
DraftKings
0.5
O +515 / U -680
-0.61%
15.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +515 / U --
-0.61%
16.3%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Chase Meidroth headshot

Chase Meidroth
CWS vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -0.92%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 7.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-0.92%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-0.92%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-0.92%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 105.9
Cody Bellinger headshot

Cody Bellinger
NYY vs CHC | David Peterson | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.15%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 15.7%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +495 / U -680
-1.15%
16.2%
BetMGM
0.5
O +490 / U --
-1.29%
17.0%
DraftKings
0.5
O +485 / U -635
-1.43%
16.5%
Projected | Projected Same Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 110.0
Brent Rooker headshot

Brent Rooker
ATH vs DET | Framber Valdez | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.37%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 20.8%
FanDuel Best Price
0.5
O +350 / U -450
-1.37%
21.4%
DraftKings
0.5
O +340 / U -420
-1.62%
22.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +345 / U --
-1.62%
22.5%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Matt Wallner headshot

Matt Wallner
MIN vs SEA | Logan Gilbert | Slot 2
No Play
Best Gap -1.48%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 18.1%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +395 / U -500
-1.48%
19.5%
FanDuel
0.5
O +405 / U -535
-1.65%
19.0%
BetMGM
0.5
O +400 / U --
-1.85%
20.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0
Nico Hoerner headshot

Nico Hoerner
CHC vs NYY | Max Fried | Slot 1
No Play
Best Gap -1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 6.0%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +1150 / U -2120
-1.53%
7.7%
FanDuel
0.5
O +1150 / U -2400
-1.97%
7.7%
BetMGM
0.5
O +1150 / U --
-1.97%
8.0%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Pitcher-Friendly | Mix 105.2
Tyler O'Neill headshot

Tyler O'Neill
BAL vs PHI | Cristopher Sánchez | Slot 3
No Play
Best Gap -1.53%
Best Side No Play
1+ HR 17.3%
DraftKings Best Price
0.5
O +420 / U -535
-1.53%
18.6%
FanDuel
0.5
O +430 / U -575
-1.59%
18.1%
BetMGM
0.5
O +425 / U --
-1.77%
19.1%
Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 463
Latest Date 2026-09-07
Latest Signals 3
Date Rows Recommendations Signals Grading
2026-09-07
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 174 matched
0 unmatched
 0 / 48 / 15
Strong / Play / Lean
 3
Carlos Santana | 28.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-06
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 228 matched
0 unmatched
 8 / 37 / 48
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Alec Burleson | 42.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-05
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 339 matched
0 unmatched
 12 / 68 / 75
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Ezequiel Tovar | 34.4
 --
Signals --
2026-09-04
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 303 matched
0 unmatched
 7 / 77 / 41
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Bobby Witt Jr. | 34.3
 --
Signals --
2026-09-03
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 126 matched
0 unmatched
 3 / 34 / 32
Strong / Play / Lean
 4
Jarren Duran | 39.1
 --
Signals --
2026-09-02
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 276 matched
0 unmatched
 18 / 77 / 58
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
TJ Friedl | 53.8
 --
Signals --
2026-09-01
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 273 matched
0 unmatched
 28 / 51 / 81
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
CJ Abrams | 43.6
 --
Signals --
2026-08-31
home_run_edges_v1_overlay
 213 matched
0 unmatched
 13 / 74 / 57
Strong / Play / Lean
 5
Adley Rutschman | 43.6
 --
Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373
Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025
Over Hit Rate 15.8%
Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%